TheHoosier.com's Mason Williams is back with another edition of True or False this week as the summer continues to wind down and the fall sports calendar inches closer.
With Big Ten Football Media Days on the horizon and the beginning of fall camp not long into August, today's topics all surround Indiana football and Tom Allen's team in his seventh full season at the helm of Hoosier football.
Let's get into today's batch of scenarios.
TRUE OR FALSE: Tayven Jackson will start for Indiana versus Ohio State in the season opener.
Right now, I lean towards TRUE. Here's why:
Bringing in Jackson out of the portal was a significant move for Indiana this season. The move garnered a lot of traction in part due to his relation to basketball star Trayce Jackson-Davis, but Jackson has a history of his own in this state.
Playing football at Center Grove, he became a two-time undefeated state champion and a state runner-up. He was a consensus four-star recruit in his graduating class and was a big piece of Tennessee's incoming class heading into his freshman season. But, with other quarterback talent ahead of him for the foreseeable future, Jackson took the chance to capitalize on finding a shot at more immediate playing time.
Enter Indiana.
The secret's out with Indiana's quarterback struggles last season. It's also well-documented how inexperienced the current Indiana quarterback room is as of now. Jackson only attempted four passes in his first season with the Volunteers, and his main competitor for the spot – Brendan Sorsby – attempted just six passes last season. Dexter Williams II continues to be on the mend after his gruesome knee injury late last season and, according to Tom Allen, is progressing better than originally thought.
There's a chance Williams is able to return to the fold and potentially shake up the position. But Jackson was brought to Indiana for a reason: to be Indiana's week one starting quarterback.
His leash could be short. Sorsby could impress in fall camp and continue to challenge for the position into the season, potentially earning a shot if Jackson doesn't perform. Truthfully, though, I feel as if Jackson is the one who possesses the higher ceiling and opens up Indiana's game the most.
For those reasons, I believe he'll be the first quarterback on the field against the Buckeyes.
TRUE OR FALSE: Indiana wins over 3.5 games this season.
TRUE.
The line set in Vegas for the Hoosiers' 2023 total wins is in a bit of a grey area. Last season, Indiana won their first three games of the season. Then, they promptly did not come out victorious for another two months, losing seven consecutive games before a miraculous comeback in East Lansing won the Hoosiers the Old Brass Spittoon and the fourth game of their season.
In all reality, there's likely only a couple of games that Indiana could've swung one way or another last season to improve upon that record. The Hoosiers lost late-game clunkers to Maryland and Rutgers in consecutive games last season, and the Illinois win seemed to carry much more weight throughout the season than likely thought of at first.
That's not counting the aforementioned win over the Spartans. According to ESPN, Michigan State had a 97.1 percent chance of victory as late a 6:17 to go in the third quarter after an Elijah Collins 31-yard score put the hosts up 31-14.
In point, a couple of plays different here or there, and Indiana's win totals fluctuate anywhere from two wins all the way up to a possible six. So is the journey of this Indiana football program.
Looking ahead to this year's schedule, Indiana's non-conference sandwiches Louisville in between matchups with Indiana State and Akron. Assuming victories over the two smaller conference opponents – especially Indiana State, who is not an FBS school in football – that leaves two wins for the Hoosiers to find from their conference slate to exceed their over/under. Of course, that becomes just one if the Hoosiers defeat Jeff Brohm's Cardinals.
I'd give Indiana a 50-50 chance of finding those victories, but I feel as if I'm a bit more ambitious about what Indiana can accomplish this season than some. For that reason, I'll chance it and say the over for now.
TRUE OR FALSE: Aaron Casey records 100+ tackles this season.
FALSE. But, just barely.
Last season, just six players across the entire conference recorded at least 100 tackles: MSU's Cal Haladay and Kendell Brooks, Iowa's Jack Campbell, OSU's Tommy Eichenberg, Northwestern's Bryce Gallagher and Michigan's Junior Colson.
Casey checked in with 86, or 7.8/game across his 11 appearances last season. Of course, he assumed the lead linebacker role in the midst of the season following Cam Jones' injury, so his totals could see a spike due to an entire season at the position. If he made eight tackles a game throughout 12 contests, he'd finish with 96. A couple of above average games here and there, and 100 is within reach.
Yet, I think the talent around Casey as a whole this season is a bit more improved than it has been in previous seasons. There are more playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, thus more guys that would take away from the raw total number of tackles Casey is able to get in on.
Indiana's offense would also like to help out their defense by staying on the field longer with the ball in their hands, thus minimizing the amount of plays that the Hoosier defense would need to be on the field for this season.
A hundred tackles is certainly doable, but I think Casey falls short of it because of the guys around him, not due to his own performance.
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