As Indiana travels to Eat Lansing to play Michigan State, it's important to know what to expect after the ball is kicked. Using the Pro Football Focus database, TheHoosier.com has provided a few key facts to know while watching the game that can't be found anywhere else.
The Micah McFadden Dilemma
Sophomore linebacker Micah McFadden has worked his way into the regular linebacker rotation that features Reakwon Jones and Cam Jones as well, but McFadden presents both concern and confidence when he’s in the game.
He has recorded the most snaps among the linebackers, with 146 – only four more than Reakwon Jones – but he’s clearly a liability for most of the those snaps, according to the numbers.
He has the worst tackling grade on the defense, as he’s made 13 total tackles but has missed six, one that translated into a big gain in the Ball State game. That’s not a surprise, as he’s not been a lock-down tackler in either season. He’s also allowed four receptions on the five occasions his receiver has been targeted, which translates to a team-high 23 yards allowed per reception.
Obviously, there are aspects to McFadden’s game outside of those statistics that Allen and the staff like, but the statistic that stands out in support of maintaining the sophomore’s snap count is his pass rushing. He’s already eclipsed his pass rushing attempts from last season, and he’s been incredibly effective, maintaining the highest pass rushing grade on the team by far.
On 25 pass rushes, he’s pressured the quarterback 12 times, recording half a sack, two quarterback hits and nine hurries – which is the most on the team, even though players like Demarcus Elliott and James Head have recorded more than 50 pass rushing attempts more than McFadden.
With a struggling offensive line, Michigan State will need to account for McFadden in pass protection.
Brian Lewerke is doing well?
It’s no secret that Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke could have been more effective during his career, as he posted a 59-percent completion rating as a sophomore but had a miserable season in 2018, throwing 11 interceptions and eight touchdowns with a 54-percent completion rate.
So with a banged up offensive line, those struggles should continue, but he’s kind of bucking expectations. Granted it’s only been non-conference play and he couldn’t lead them to a win against Arizona State, but Lewerke is having his best statistical season. He’s hit for seven touchdowns and only thrown one interception.
He’s also completed 62 percent of his passes. But according to PFF’s adjusted completion percentage – which takes out drops, throwaways, spikes, hits while throwing and batted passes – his completion percentage is 75 percent, which is No. 26 among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season.
So Lewerke is actually doing well. But what jumps out is that, within that same group, Lewerke has the most drops. That translates to a 10.7-percent drop percentage. That is followed by Big Ten quarterbacks Shea Patterson (8.7 percent), Elijah Sindelar (7.7) and Nate Stanley (5.3).
For those wondering, Mike Penix (62 dropbacks) has an 80.7-percentage adjusted completion percentage and has, by far, the highest drop percentage (15 percent) for his number of dropbacks. Peyton Ramsey (87 dropbacks) has a 77..8 adjusted percentage with a 1.4-percent drop rate.
Where Elijah Collins has most success
Michigan State has had some rough luck with the offensive line in 2019, as it’s currently on its fourth left tackle, after its right guard moved to left tackle and suffered an injury as well. The PFF grades do not favor the Spartans in blocking, which was addressed earlier this week.
But running directions can show where a team has the most confidence in the line, and so far, those aren’t too telling, except only to show where running back Elijah Collins likes to run. He likes to punch the hole just to the right of his center and just to the right of his guard. That’s where he’s carried the ball on 24 of his 61 carries.
He averages 7.6 yards per carry between those two gaps, has recorded 10 of his 19 first downs there, has found four of his eight carries of more than 10 yards there and recorded his longest rush (58 yards) in the right guard gap.
Overall, those two gaps aren’t where Michigan State likes to run most often. 53 of its 144 rushing attempts have been made around the outside shoulder of the tight end on either side, meaning the Spartans like to avoid the line altogether and find space outside. But when Collins has the ball, he’s most likely headed toward the right interior of his line.
Where has Marcelino Ball gone?
That’s the question that was repeatedly asked as the non-conference season wore on.
After Ball burst onto the scene as a true freshman in 2016, he showed signs of improvement last season after missing 2017 due to injury. It was reasonable to expect Ball to be another statistical leader for a young defense in 2019, but Ball has virtually disappeared.
Somehow, he’s recorded the second-most snaps on the team, with 159, second to Andre Brown’s 166. But that’s the only stat he’s compiled. Obviously, against Eastern Illinois, Tom allen sat him for all but 21 snaps due to his unsportsmanlike penalties against Ball State, but after the Ball State game, when he recorded 10 tackles, he’s only added three more. Yet he’s played a normal number of snaps.
What’s been normal is his struggle in coverage. His receiver has been targeted nine times and has caught a pass six times. Those passes have only gone an average of 7.8 yards per catch, though. Much of his career struggles against the pass could theoretically be directed toward the nature of his position, which puts him at an automatic disadvantage in coverage.
Teams have found a way to avoid Ball, as he hasn’t recorded any tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions, pass breakups or fumbles – forced or recovered. But the staff hasn’t exactly shoved him into any position to make those plays, as he’s recorded just 20 pass rushing attempts, where he hurried the quarterback four times.
He will need to be a playmaker during Big Ten play for Indiana to be productive on defense.
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