Michigan State has suffered a season-defining loss to Arizona State and beaten a tough Northwestern team through four weeks in 2019, and as the Spartans prepare to host the Hoosiers in week five, neither team is sure exactly how good they are.
These are 10 things to know about MSU.
Best defense in the country?
What jumps out to any opponent that will line up across from Michigan State this season is its stellar defense. The Spartans are on par with Ohio State’s defense that left Indiana totally stagnant on offense, aside from a trick-play passing touchdown and a 20-yard run by Peyton Ramsey. ESPN SP+ ranks Michigan State’s defense No. 1 nationally, while Pro Football Focus grades it at No. 3 behind Ohio State and Alabama. It ranks No. 5 in the nation in total yards allowed per game, with 226.
Led by the Big Ten’s reigning player of the week Joe Bachie at linebacker and Kenny Willekes at defensive end, Michigan State makes it nearly impossible to run the ball and very difficult to pass too.
Pass defense is the way to go against MSU
It’s not that Michigan State’s pass defense is terrible – it’s not. It’s more that the Spartan’s rushing defense is too good to run against. They allow just 1.7 yards per carry, which is equal to Ohio State, the same defense that allowed just 42 total rushing yards against Indiana in week three.
The pass defense rates No. 6 in the Big ten, and Indiana could take advantage of that to varying degrees based on which quarterback plays Saturday. The Spartans’ starting cornerbacks – Josiah Scott and Josh Butler – have allowed catches on a combined 20 of 39 targets for 235 yards.
While Indiana hasn’t played many teams with strong passing defenses, it rates sixth in the conference in passing efficiency and second in passing yards per game.
Michigan State's Big Three
On offense, Michigan State has three playmakers that represent the Spartan offense at the top of statistical categories within the Big Ten, but those numbers can be misleading. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is second in the conference to Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez in total passing yards, running back Elijah Collins is third in rushing yards, and Darrell Stewart Jr. leads the conference in receptions and receiving yards.
Behind those three, though, it gets bleak for the Spartans. No running back behind Collins averages more than six carries per game, and no receiver behind stewart gets more than four catches per game.
Big three doesn't translate to team success
Despite the big numbers from those three contributors on offense, Michigan State’s offense has been fairly lackluster, rated No. 8 in the Big Ten for total yards per game this season.
Michigan State’s rushing offense has been below average (145 yards per game), and it’s passing offense has been just above average (261).
Much of the offensive struggles attributed to offensive line
It’s difficult to quantify offensive line production, but the best way is by comparing grading systems like Pro Football Focus, which take individual offensive line performances and apply grades to them for aspects that don’t show up on box scores.
Michigan State has been among the worst in PFF’s system.
The Spartans are best at pass blocking, but they still rank No. 73, and they’ve been terrible at run blocking, coming in at No. 102. Much of those struggles were due to injuries early in the season, and as the health begins to return, so does the production. The offensive line had its best game of the season against a good Northwestern defense last week.
David Ellis watch
Indiana freshman wide receiver and kick returner David Ellis has flashed major potential returning kicks this season and seems to have a natural ability finding seams, as Tom Allen has noted. Last Thursday, Allen said the next step for Ellis is returning a kick for a score – a feat that hasn’t been accomplished at Indiana since Tevin Coleman.
“Break one. Just get one,” Allen said when asked about Ellis on kickoffs. “He’s been close. Once you get him into the heart of that unit, he can make one guy miss and go score. I want to see him take one back to the house.”
Ellis wasn’t able to accomplish that against Connecticut. The Huskies only kicked it off two times. But Michigan State might be the week he matches Allen’s challenge.
The Spartans are ranked No. 12 in the Big Ten in kickoff coverage, netting just 38 yards on kickoffs that aren’t touchbacks and not having reached double-digits in touchbacks despite having one of the highest numbers (24) in kickoff attempts.
Ellis will get his chance for his first career kickoff return touchdown Saturday.
Penalty prone
Football is at a crossroads when it comes to penalties in 2019, as this season has seen one of its highest numbers in penalties at all levels in recent memory. Michigan State certainly hasn’t escaped that trend.
The Spartans have committed the most penalties in the Big Ten, with 31 – just under eight per game – and it costs them 70 yards per game.
In its loss against Arizona State, Michigan State’s penalties – 10 for 91 yards – certainly assisted the Sun Devils in their upset, as the Spartans found themselves in third down scenarios 17 times and, despite outpacing Arizona State in first downs, yards, time of possession and only turning the ball over once, Michigan State still lost the game.
Most consecutive times MSU has been ranked vs. Indiana
When Indiana takes on Michigan State on Saturday, it will mark the sixth consecutive time IU has played a ranked Michigan State team, which is the most in the series. With just a couple gaps, IU has been playing Michigan State every season since 1950 and is losing the series 47-16-2.
The last time Indiana defeated Michigan State was in Bloomington during the 2016 season, when Richard Lagow, Devine Redding, Ricky Jones and Tegray Scales led Indiana to an overtime win in Tom Allen’s first year on staff and the goalposts were brought down by the fans in postgame.
That Michigan State team would go on to win just three games, the fewest since 1991. It was the same for the Spartans when Indiana beat them in 2006 as well, as they recorded just four wins that season. Indiana hasn’t beaten a winning Michigan State team since 2001, when the Spartans went 7-5.
It appears Michigan State will be a winning team this year but are also vulnerable, so the Hoosiers have a chance to buck that trend.
Michigan State doesn’t recruit Indiana very hard
There is only one Indiana native on Michigan State’s roster in 2019, and he rarely sees the field. Damon Kaylor, a true freshman offensive tackle out of Huntington, committed and signed with the Spartans in the 2019 class.
Outside of Kaylor, Michigan State has added just two Indiana prospects to its roster since signing Josiah Price out of Greentown in 2012. Michigan State signed four-star defensive end Auston Robertson out of Fort Wayne in 2016 and currently has three-star New Palestine defensive end Kyle King committed to what is shaping up to be a fairly underwhelming 2020 class.It makes sense why Michigan State wouldn't dip into Indiana, though. Most of Mark Dantonio’s efforts are in Michigan and Ohio, which are two of the best football recruiting pools in the Midwest.
Kicker issues
Michigan State’s kicker, Matt Coghlin, is having some recent kicking issues that could bleed into the Indiana game. In the Arizona State loss, Coghlin missed three field goals, two from 47 yards out and one from 31 yards. He missed another one against Northwestern last week too.
Before those misses, Coghlin had hit 7-of-7, and he’s been fairly reliable during his career, missing four field goals in each of his last two seasons. He attempted 19 and 22 field goals as a freshman and sophomore respectively, but in 12 attempts as a junior, he’s already matched his missed total from his past two seasons.
----
• Talk about it inside The Hoops Forum or The Football Forum
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Follow us on Twitter: @IndianaRivals
• Like us on Facebook.