After back-to-back losses against Arkansas and Maryland, Indiana welcomes an injury-ridden Northwestern team that's on a four-game losing streak into Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.
After back-to-back losses to Arkansas and Maryland and with major concerns about the offense, Indiana’s future in the 2019-20 season is in more question than it’s delved into throughout a tough December schedule and into 18 consecutive Big Ten matchups. So a contest at home against Northwestern, the second-lowest rated Big Ten team, is a welcomed event on the schedule before the conference gauntlet continues.
Northwestern head coach Chris Collins has seen his program dip after two straight 20-win seasons in 2016 and 2017, and this season doesn’t appear to be going any better for the seven-year head coach. The Wildcats are currently 5-8 and on a four-game losing streak.
For all of its losses, though, Northwestern has played one of the toughest schedules in the Big Ten until this point in the season. It opened the season with a loss to No. 285 Merrimack but quickly erased it with a win over top-100 Providence, representing the team’s last top-100 win to date. Since then, Northwestern’s best victory has come against No. 112 Bradley.
Since that win, Northwestern has lost to Pitt, Purdue, DePaul and Minnesota, all teams within the top 81 in the country. A loss to No. 301 Hartford at home, though, signified a continued distress from the Wildcats.
What It Means
Indiana needs a win Wednesday more than it’s needed a win during any of its other contests this season. As some of the vulnerabilities – offensive woes, inexperience and lack of confidence – that vaguely attached themselves to this Indiana team begin to rage after two consecutive losses, it appears Big Ten victories early in the conference schedule are going to be tough to come by while the Hoosiers work through the mid-season slump.
Indiana has been given an 82-percent chance by KenPom.com to defeat Northwestern –its best chance at a Big Ten win, by far, for the rest of the season. A win against Northwestern could draw a definitive line between itself and the lowest levels of the conference and add some validation to the non-conference victories the team willed itself toward.
A strong offensive performance against a team that allows just 66 points per game and has virtually no post presence would help too.
Injuries limit Wildcats to seven scholarship players
Northwestern was down three starters when it played Minnesota on the road Sunday and lost 77-68. Freshman point guard Boo Buie was sidelined with a stress fracture in his foot, the Chicago Tribune reported, and is out indefinitely as Northwestern looks to protect its future point guard. His availability for the game Wednesday is unknown. Buie has had the highest usage rate among any Wildcat and averages 10.8 points and 2.6 assists on 21 minutes per game. He scored 26 points in 26 minutes against Michigan State this season.
Junior guard Anthony Gaines will not play against Indiana, as he will undergo season-ending surgery on his shoulder. Gaines is a defender first and is one of the best on the team, though measuring just 6-foot-4 as a guard. He was the only starter to not average more than 10 points per game.
Senior forward A.J. Turner is considered day-to-day with a bruised thigh. He is the most likely to be available among the three injured Wildcats. He averages 20 minutes per game and adds length to the Northwestern lineup at 6-foot-7.
These injuries certainly contributed to Northwestern’s loss to Hartford, but it didn’t prevent the Wildcats from being competitive at the Barn in Minnesota. The injuries have applied a lot of pressure on the starting lineup. Leading-scorer Miller Kopp played 40 minutes at Minnesota, as four Wildcats played more than 33 minutes and only two bench players were available.
A chance to answer doubts around shooting
The driving force in the narrative surrounding the Indiana program since Maryland has been channels in which Indiana can fix its offensive struggles. After posting a 36-percent field goal percentage, a 22-percent three-point percentage and a 61-percent free throw percentage at Maryland, Archie Miller said the ball simply “isn’t going in the basket.”
During his radio show Monday evening, he mentioned that making reads quicker, dribbling less and delivering the ball where it needs to be in a timely manner are all contributors, primarily from his backcourt players, that have limited Indiana offensively.
“I think the ‘They can’t shoot’ or ‘They don’t make threes’ – I think that is complete B.S.,” Miller said on his radio show. “I think we’ll make good threes if we deliver the ball when it’s supposed to be delivered.”
Shooting droughts have stunned the Hoosiers when they’ve happened this season, none more potently than the 10-minute stretch that featured just two field goals from Indiana, blowing out a three-point Maryland lead to 30. Since the Florida State win on Dec. 3, the Hoosiers have eclipsed 70 points just one time – a 96-90 overtime win against Nebraska.
In games when Indiana needed an offensive playmaker to step up, they’ve found one. Against Florida State, it was 30 points from Devonte Green, against Connecticut, it was Joey Brunk late in the game, against Nebraska, it was Rob Phinisee in overtime, and against Notre Dame, it was Armaan Franklin. But when those playmakers don’t show up, it spells disaster for Indiana, as Trayce Jackson-Davis became a non-factor in the second half against Arkansas and Maryland left the Indiana backcourt to carry its offense, which it was not ready to do.
The formula has been simple for opposing defenses – pack the paint and leave the Hoosier guards to produce offense. But the backcourt hasn’t hit its shots. As a team, Indiana is 12th in the conference in three-point percentage (30.7), and outside of Al Durham and Devonte Green, who have combined for 41-of-107 (38.3 percent) from three, the Hoosiers have collectively shot 33-of-134 (24.6). There is no threat to draw out opposing defenses, making the frontcourt contributors’ jobs far more difficult.
Teams tend to make shots inside against Northwestern, but lately, getting inside has been hit-or-miss for the Hoosiers.
Northwestern’s height yet lack of inside presence
Northwestern is the seventh-tallest team in the nation, and two of its starters, Ryan Young and Pete Nance, measure 6-foot-10. While Maryland had tall frontcourt contributors it rotated in, this is one of the few instances where Indiana will play to tall players who are on the floor at the same time.
With that height, though, the Wildcats aren’t necessarily a force in the post. They have one of the lowest rebounding totals in the country, with 34 rebounds per game, and one of the lowest blocks totals as well, with 2.3 per game.
Some of those totals are skewed because of Northwestern’s effort to slow down the tempo. The Wildcats force the 10th-longest possessions in the country, rivaling Virginia, with 18.7 seconds per possession.
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