Indiana welcomes Purdue to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday afternoon in a game that not only represents the next addition to a long list of past rivalry games but also has postseason implications with nine games remaining on the schedule.
Purdue is a tested team. According to KenPom.com, the Boilermakers have the seventh-toughest schedule in the nation, and it’s caused some good, bad and ugly for Purdue all season.
The good: beating VCU in November, beating Virginia in December, and beating Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa by an average of 31.3 points. The bad: Losing to Texas at home, losing to Florida State and only winning against Northwestern on the road in the Big Ten. The ugly: losing by 14 at Nebraska and scoring only 37 points in a loss at Illinois.
All in all, though, Indiana head coach Archie Miller said when Purdue wins, it can look really good as a team.
“If you watch them play, I think they have the most impressive wins in our league,” Miller said Friday. “Not that every team doesn't have a signature win at home or whatever, but if you look at the impressive games and you say. ‘Who in the Big Ten had a night where, man, that team, boy, were they good?’ they've had about four or five of them.”
The Boilermakers are coming off of one of those wins, after hitting 19 three-pointers to hit triple-digits in a win at home against Iowa on Wednesday.
What It Means
Few words need to be said to emphasize the rivalry of Indiana and Purdue basketball. It’s a rivalry that dates back to 1901 and features 46 Big Ten Championships, 88 All-Americans and nine Big Ten Players of the Year. Some of the most memorable moments for either program occurred in games between the two teams, including Bob Knight’s chair-throwing incident of 1985.
But there are some other implications that come with the game Saturday as well. In terms of the Big Ten standings, Indiana and Purdue are expected to finish near each other, around the 10-10 mark. The winner of Saturday's game will play a part in determining which team sits on top of the other by Big Ten Tournament time. Also, Purdue is currently No. 29 in the NCAA NET ratings. Indiana is No. 51. That is thanks in large part to those big wins Archie Miller noted Friday. Finding a way to beat Purdue would likely bump Indiana up a few pegs in the NET.
But that win won’t come for Indiana unless it toughens up on the inside, which has been at the heart of why the Hoosiers lost their last three games before getting the last week off.
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Rebounding and playing inside against Williams, Haarms
Purdue forward Trevion Williams is one of the most efficient rebounders in the country. Among players used on at least 28 percent of their teams possessions, Williams is No. 7 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 42 in defensive rebounding percentage. Those are very high numbers.
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But rebounding is at the center of Indiana’s success this season. The Hoosiers rank No. 11 in the country in rebounding rate. Purdue in No. 49. Yet rebounding is an area of concern for Indiana entering this game because of being out-rebounded, 31-24, at Ohio State last weekend and because of showing a lack of physicality in interior defense in its last three games. Zero second-chance points was the big number heading out of Columbus, and Indiana will need to avoid a repeat-performance of the sort Saturday.
Williams has shown an ability to take over games – such as his 36-point, 20-rebound game against Michigan – and Indiana is coming off of getting bullied by Kaleb Wesson. Williams, at 280 pounds, plays fairly similarly to Wesson, and with Matt Haarms inside as well, Joey Brunk and Trayce Jackson-Davis will have their hands full with another unusual post personnel.
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“Their perimeter guys are all good players and they can shoot, but you deal with good guards every game,” Miller said. “You don't deal with the type of inside attack that they have and the way that they get the ball inside so easily all the time. They're good at it.”
Sasha Stefanovic, three-point shooting
While the game lives and dies in the post Saturday, three-point shooting is what most eyes will naturally be watching, after Purdue rattled in 19 three-point shots against Iowa on Wednesday. Everything was dropping in Mackey Arena.
While the Boilermakers can shoot the three slightly above average, they aren’t necessarily a three-point shooting team. They shoot the 106th-best percentage from three in the country this season, and since Big Ten play began, Purdue is seventh in the conference, with 33.3 percent.
Wednesday, Jahaad Proctor came off the bench and went 3-of-3 from three, and Evan Boudreaux, a season-long 34.4-percent three-point shooter who doesn’t attempt more than 1.5 threes per game, hit four threes. The probability of Purdue repeating that performance Saturday is low, especially considering Purdue hadn’t hit double-digit three-point totals since Jan. 2.
That doesn’t mean Purdue doesn’t get it going from three often. It’s shot 40 percent and above from three on eight occasions this year, and usually Sasha Stefanovic is the one to get it started.
Stefanovic attempts nearly six three-point shots per game and is hitting 39.1 percent of them. He’s their three-point specialist and plays 27 minutes per game. In Purdue’s game against Iowa, Stefanovic hit five of Purdue’s 19 made threes. He also hit seven of Purdue’s 14 against Central Michigan, six of Purdue’s 13 against Virginia and five of Purdue’s 11 against Minnesota. He’s the catalyst for any of Purdue’s best three-point shooting performances, and in total, he is responsible for 28 percent of its total made three-pointers. He’s also responsible for 25 percent of his team’s attempted threes.
Without Stefanovic, Purdue won’t hurt Indiana from three, but even if Purdue does hit its threes, Indiana has absorbed many of its worst perimeter defense performances. Four top-100 teams have shot 40 percent or better from three against Indiana – Wisconsin, Maryland, Louisiana Tech and Michigan State. The Hoosiers defeated Michigan State and Louisiana Tech, and Maryland, who hit 41.4 percent of its threes in Bloomington, beat Indiana inside the three-point arc at the end of the game.
Indiana’s worst two perimeter defense performances were against North Alabama and Portland State. Both teams hit 50 percent of their threes.
The fear for Indiana, though, is if there is carry-over from Purdue’s lights-out night Wednesday and the Boilermakers are hitting some threes, how much will that stretch out the Hoosiers defense and allow Haarms and Williams to work inside? That will be the way threes will hurt the Hoosiers, not by burying them like they did Iowa.
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