Heading into week 8 of the college football season the race in the Big Ten is very far from over, but we can start to lay out several scenarios. Personally, I believe the B1G will have 4 teams that end up 11-1, or better and deserving of an invite to the CFP. But, if that 4th team is Indiana, don't be too surprised if there is a "rule change."
After beating Ohio State in Eugne, the Oregon Ducks control their own destiny with a manageable schedule. The Duck's toughest remaining games will come in 3 of their final 4 contests: at #24 Michigan Nov. 2, at a surging Wisconsin Nov. 16, and a season finale at home vs rival Washington. Penn State will also head to Madison to play the Badgers before taking on Ohio State, a game the Buckeyes cannot lose if they want to remain in the CFP picture. The Nittany Lions could lose to OSU and be fine with one regular season loss, although a 10-2 OSU team would probably still get an invitation extended, I mean it's Ohio State, what would you expect.
The biggest surprise of the college football season will be the 'Ringo Starr' of that 11-1 quartet of teams that I mentioned earlier, the Indiana Hoosiers. And it is more than plausible. While there is little, or maybe zero margin for error for the Hoosiers, they have a path. Just like the path to 6-0 I talked about before the season started, there is a path to 11-1, or better for Indiana. The team at the center of every one of these scenarios is Ohio State, and that is the only game IU can afford to lose and remain among the Top 12 CFP teams. Indiana just has to beat everyone else, which is easy for you to say. But the Hoosiers will be favored in every game save for the Buckeyes. Oregon will also be favored to win their remaining 6 games. Penn State will probably be a 2.5-point favorite at home vs Ohio State, as well as favored to win the rest of their games. If OSU loses at Penn State and ends up 10-2, Indiana's hopes of getting in might dim, even at 11-1, but I think the Hoosiers make it in. Here's this week's Big Ten Power Rankings.
#1. Oregon (AP #2) 3-0 (6-0) Is coming off of one of the most important wins of the college football season after holding off Ohio State 32-31 in Eugene last week. I'm giving them their due, but I still think OSU might be the best team in the conference. This week: -27.5 @ Purdue
#2A. Penn State (AP #3) 6-0 (3-0) After a slow start to the season the Nittany Lions roared in Los Angeles last week, coming back to defeat USC 33-30 in OT. Tom Allen's defense was tested again but made the plays when needed. The offense managed to do enough for the win. This week - Bye
#2B. Ohio State (AP #4) 3-0 (5-1) Took the "L" vs the Ducks partly because of some ill-timed poor clock management and some quick thinking by Dan Lanning. The NCAA took of the latter this week with a rule change. The Buckeyes get to think about it for a week, but I still expect to see them in the B1G championship game if they get passed Penn State later this season. This week: Bye
#4. (AP#16) Indiana 6-0 (3-0) Remains one of the biggest surprises in college football under Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers will face their first "true test" of the season this week for the non-believers. I think it will be a great test for Indiana, but one I expect them to pass because that offense 'ain't no joke!' This week: -6.5 vs Nebraska.
#5. Illinois AP #22 5-1 (2-1) has played a tough schedule with wins at Nebraska, a loss at Penn State and now they get another heavyweight, albeit one that has lost it's luster and has struggled on offense searching for their quarterback. Is former Indiana QB Jack Tuttle that guy? We shall see. This week: +3.5 vs Michigan
#6. Iowa 4-2 (2-1) Needed a get-right game and Minnesota obliged last week as the Hawkeyes made off with a 31-14 win and the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. It'll be a quiet Saturday in Iowa City. This week: Bye
#7. Nebraska 5-1 (2-1) Took a brutal loss at home to Illinois in week 4 and has managed to stay in the win column ever since. A stingy defense has been a big key, but their "just better than average" offense will not cut the mustard in bigger games. This week: +6.5 at Indiana
#8. Washington 4-3 (2-2) Seemed to be putting things together with a home win over Michigan 2 weeks ago. Then the Huskies traveled to Iowa City and got run out of town 40-16. They need the rest because next up will be the most potent offense UW has seen this season with a trip to Bloomington on the horizon. This week: Bye
#9. Michigan 4-2 (2-1) Is still trying to figure itself out. Seeming to have settled on Jack Tuttle as their guy going forward. The Maze and Blue has had a week to lick their wounds after losing a tough one in Seattle 2 weeks back. Their opponent this week has also been up and down. This week: -3.5 at Illinois
#10. Minnesota 4-3 (2-2) Might be the king of ups and downs for the first half of the season. Losing a very winnable game to North Carolina early, then a gigantic win over USC followed by a narrow victory over cellar dweller UCLA left the Golden Gophers on the right side of .500. This week: Bye
#11. USC 3-3 (1-3) Is one of the surprises in the Big Ten this season, just not in a good way. The Trojans let wins against both Michigan and Penn State slip through their hands and currently have a losing conference record and reside in 16th place of the B1G standings. This week: -7.5 at Maryland
#12. Wisconsin 4-2 (2-1) Has not had the start it would like in Luke Fickel's 2nd season in Madison, bit the offense appears to be getting it together. Scoring 94 points in their last two wins is a good sign. But be weary, I believe this week could be a trap game for the Badgers if there is such a thing for a team that is 1 game over .500. This week: -7.5 at Northwestern
#13. Northwestern 3-3 (1-2) Is a team that has looked better in consecutive games, much to the credit of QB Jack Lousch. After an 8 of 27 for 57-yard performance against Washington, where the Wildcats managed just 3 offensive points, a bye week seemed to give Lousch some confidence. Against Indiana he was 23/38 for 243 yards and 2 TDs. He followed that up with a quieter 10/18, 203-yard day in a much-needed win at Maryland. This week: +7.5 vs Wisconsin
#14. Rutgers 4-2 (1-2) Looked like a potential surprise team early on, then cooled off. Last week Wisconsin came into Piscataway and ran roughshod over the Scarlet Knights, 42-7. Yikes. They might get the elixir they need this week. This week: -4.5 vs UCLA
#15. Michigan State 3-3 (1-2) Got an early season road win at Maryland to open some eyes, but there has not been much to crow about since. I do not see that changing Saturday in East Lansing. This week: +5.5 vs Iowa
#16 Maryland 3-3 (0-3) Looked like at least like a solid team when then kept coming at Indiana, even though they still lost by 2 scores. Last week's 37-10 beatdown by Northwestern was not a great sign for the Turtles. Time for some crab cakes. This week: +7.5 vs USC
#17 Purdue 1-5 (0-3) Will probably hold onto Ryan Walters for at least another year. The season has not been a good one in West Lafayette, but there have been moments. None bigger than the epic show the Boilers put on in what might have been their greatest comeback. Trailing 24-3 at the half vs Illinois, Purdue scored 40 second-half points, including 23 in the 4th, only to fall 50-49 in OT. This week: +28.5 vs Oregon
#18 UCLA 1-5 (0-4) Is trying, I guess. And someone has to be last, right? No one wants to be team that gives the Bruins their first ever Big Ten football win, but it has to be someone. Will that happen this week? Probably not.
This week: -4.5 at Rutgers
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