Last week the best quarterback prospects in the 2024 class competed in Redondo Beach, Calif., at the Elite 11 Finals, the 25th edition of the quarterback camp for the country's best prospects at the most important position in sports.
The MVP of this year's event was five-star Alabama commit Julian Sayin of Carlsbad, Calif. He is the No. 4 overall ranked player in the country, and the second-ranked quarterback behind Georgia commit -- and No. 1 overall prospect -- Dylan Raiola, who was also impressive last week.
Few high school prospects, if any, receive more attention than a five-star quarterback. Of course, social media sensations, like Zion Williamson, create a large following online for success on the basketball court. Bronny James and Arch Manning, a five-star quarterback in the 2023 class himself, garner loads of attention for their familial connections, but are also supremely talented represented by finding themselves on USC’s basketball roster and Texas’ football team.
What is the likelihood one of the five-star quarterbacks at the 2023 Elite 11 hits? How likely is it that a five-star prospect gets selected in the NFL Draft or is a first-round pick in the NFL Draft? The data suggests an interesting trend for the country's elite high school quarterbacks.
FIVE STAR QBs ANDÂ THE NFL DRAFT
From the 2006 to 2020 recruiting classes there have been 33 five-star quarterback prospects. Of the 33 five-star quarterbacks, 20 (60.6 percent) of them were selected at any point in the NFL Draft, regardless of where the player went to college.
In May, the Athletic examined the chances that a five-star prospect, regardless of position and school, is selected by an NFL team in the draft. The Athletic found that of the 370 total five stars, 215 (58.1 percent) were drafted.
Of the 20 five-star quarterbacks drafted into the NFL, 10 were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. There was two former five-star quarterbacks selected in the second round, three drafted in the third round, two in the fourth round, one in the fifth round, two in the sixth round and zero former five-star quarterbacks drafted in the seventh round.
FIVE STAR QBs AND THEIR COLLEGE SUCCESS
Of the 33 former five-star quarterbacks, only four have won the Heisman Trophy -- Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Bryce Young. All four of the quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and three of them were the No. 1 overall pick in their individual draft class.
There have been seven All-American seasons by former five-star prospects. Tebow was a two-time All-American, Newton, Winston, DeShaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Young all achieved All-America honors in their college careers.
On 23 occasions, a former five-star prospect earned All-Conference honors during their college football careers.
THE BIGGEST FIVE-STAR HITS
Using a point system to reward players for accomplishments, the Hoosier was able to determine which five-star prospects had the most success, excluding NFL accomplishments.
Players were given 10 points for being a first-round NFL Draft pick, nine points for winning the Heisman Trophy, eight points for being a second or third-round pick, seven points for earning All-America status, four points for being a fourth-seventh-round selection and two points for being named an All-Conference team member.
Of the former five-star prospects, Tim Tebow, the No. 22 ranked player in the 2006 class by Rivals, earned the most points, 39. Tebow won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore, was a two-time All-American in his Florida Gator career, a three-time All-SEC member and a first-round pick by the Denver Broncos.
Jameis Winston and Bryce Young both totaled 30 points, tying for second place. Both were drafted No. 1 overall, and both won a Heisman Trophy, both were All-Americans for one season and two-time All-Conference selections.
Cam Newton finished with 28 points. Newton was a Heisman Trophy winner, All-American, and All-SEC member in his one season at Auburn. Newton could have potentially finished with more points had his college career not taken him to Blinn Junior College after two seasons at Florida.
More recent college stars Trevor Lawrence (23), DeShaun Watson (21) and Justin Fields (21) all finished near each other after a successful national championship-winning career at Clemson for Lawrence and Watson and College Football Playoff appearances for Fields.
THE BIGGEST BUSTS
There are 13 former five-star quarterbacks who did not earn a single point, meaning 39.3 percent of five-star quarterbacks could be considered a bust. But JT Daniels, Spencer Rattler, Bo Nix, DJ Uiagalelei and Harrison Bailey are all still playing college football.
Some busts are bigger than others, though. Russell Shepard, a five-star in the 2009 class who played at LSU was moved to wide receiver after his freshman season when he played 11 games at quarterback for the Tigers in 2009.
Others turned into fine college quarterbacks, like Rattler. The South Carolina starter -- who began his career at Oklahoma -- has thrown for 58 touchdowns and 24 interceptions in his four-year career. He is returning to the Gamecocks for the 2023 season and could turn into an NFL Draft pick with a strong season, potentially.
ONE AREA DATA DOESN'T TELL A FULL STORY
One former five-star quarterback that didn't receive a single point is former Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Pryor played three seasons at Ohio State, his best being his junior season when he completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,772 yards and 27 touchdowns with 11 interceptions.
Pryor's college career was altered drastically when he was involved with 'Tattoo Gate,' leading to Pryor being suspended for selling team-issued apparel by the NCAA in exchange for tattoos.
The former Buckeye didn't earn a single All-Big Ten honor in his three seasons, but not having a senior season derailed his NFL Draft potential. He was eventually selected in the third round of the 2011 NFL Supplemental draft by the Raiders.
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