Staff Predictions: No. 22 Indiana At Maryland
Jon Sauber
Indiana will enter Friday’s game coming off a loss for the third time this season. On the first two occasions the Hoosiers responded well, taking home victories both times. This is their first time following a loss with a road game, however, and Maryland is a far better team than UT Arlington and Northwestern, who they defeated after losing to Arkansas and Duke, respectively. Maryland comes into the game with three losses as well. All three of their losses have been by five points or less and have come against teams ranked in the KenPom top 50. They also only have one win over a KenPom top 50, compared to Indiana’s three.
On the floor, the Terrapins pose an interesting matchup for Indiana. Jalen Smith and Bruno Fernando for a quality duo in Maryland’s frontcourt. Both are NBA-level talents and complement each other well. Smith is long and athletic, showing range on his jumper out to the three-point line, as well as length and mobility as a defender. Fernando plays more in the post for Maryland and is a force on both ends of the floor. He has the strength to score in the paint and hold his own defensively, while deterring opponents from attacking the rim with his shot-blocking ability. Justin Smith should be tasked with guarding Jalen Smith, while Juwan Morgan will have to take on Fernando, which could cause issues with foul trouble for Morgan.
Indiana’s biggest advantage will come with their best player, Romeo Langford. Maryland doesn’t have anyone to match up with Langford, and that will cause problems for them. He needs to attack Fernando at the basket and try to get the Maryland big man in foul trouble. That could help keep Morgan on the floor as well. This is the kind of game where Langford can shine, and it’s hard not to see him doing just that.
Prediction: Indiana 72, Maryland 70.
Stu Jackson
After becoming accustomed to late rallies compensating for slow starts during a seven-game win streak, Indiana faced the harsh reality that such an approach won't fly the remainder of the conference season following last Sunday's loss at Michigan.
The Big Ten is too deep for such habits to last. IU will try to break them and start a new win streak Friday night at Maryland.
Despite losing sophomores Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter to the NBA, Maryland's offensive efficiency still ranks 24 spots higher than it did at the end of last season. It checks in at No. 21 nationally according to KenPom after finishing No. 45 last year.
Huerter was especially critical to Maryland's offense last year, a 41.4 percent 3-point shooter who allowed the Terrapins to space the floor. His replacement in the lineup - former national top 25 prospect and freshman forward Jalen Smith - has helped them become of the best rebounding teams in the country, especially on the offensive glass. Maryland is collecting 36.9 percent of possible offensive rebounds, good for 14th nationally per KenPom as well as several second chance opportunities.
Between the 6-10, 215 pound Smith and 6-10, 240-pound Bruno Fernando, Maryland has a bit of a size advantage in the frontcourt. Points in the paint and winning the rebounding battle will both be key for Indiana to avoid another slow start and keep this game close.
IU's thin depth due to injuries, especially in the frontcourt, though, make it tough to see the Hoosiers get the win on the road.
Prediction: Maryland 74, Indiana 68.
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