Indiana and Purdue are set to battle in the season finale during rivalry week, as both programs have overachieved and underachieved in their own ways. The Boilermakers' passing attack has overachieved given the injuries that have hit the quarterback and wide receiver positions, as well as everywhere else on the roster, and their rushing defense has suffered from those injuries.
Passing game success
In some ways, it’s a miracle that Purdue has a passing attack at all, let alone the second-best in the conference, behind Indiana, at 301 yards per game. The Boilermakers are on their third quarterback of the season and have lost several key contributors that would be the foundation of Purdue’s most potent offensive unit under Jeff Brohm.
A collarbone injury indefinitely ended Elijah Sindelar’s season just two-plus games into the year, and an ankle injury sidelined promising freshman Jack Plummer’s season, after seven games. Now, the passing game is in the hands of former walk-on Aidan O’Connell.
Brohm has not decreased the presence of the passing game at all in the two games O’Connell has started either. The sophomore has attempted 93 passes between the two games, completing 60 of them for 560 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions.
Much of that success can be attributed to freshman receiver David Bell and redshirt senior tight end Brycen Hopkins. Both pass-catchers have emerged as top threats in the conference at their positions. But this isn’t exactly what Brhom had in mind when the season began.
Sophomore receiver Rondale Moore was anticipated to repeat his stellar freshman season, during which he torched many teams, including Indiana on 12 catches, 141 yards and two touchdowns. But Moore suffered a hyperextended knee injury and is week-to-week but hasn’t played for seven weeks. Freshman receiver T.J. Sheffield was also expected to be a contributor in the passing game, but his season came to an end after his first appearance of the season.
Now, it’s Bell, with 77 catches, 899 yards and six touchdowns, and Hopkins, with 53 catches, 688 yards and five touchdowns, leading the way. Bell, the former four-star and No. 2 prospect out of the state of Indiana who chose the Boilermakers over the Hoosiers, has certainly lived up to the hype he received during his recruiting process, as he’s compiled 71 catches and 769 yards in the seven-plus games that Moore has missed.
With O’Connell at quarterback facing the No. 3 passing defense in the conference, in Wisconsin, Purdue posted its second-best Pro Football Focus passing grade of the season, as O’Connell completed 60 percent of his passes for 239 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
With Indiana’s worst showing as a secondary this season in the very-near past, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Purdue attempt to take advantage of the opportunities Michigan exploited. But when Indiana has played teams with limited options at receiver, it’s typically fared well.
Injuries have piled up
The passing game isn’t the only place Purdue has seen players go down. Not even close. There’s a long list of injuries plaguing the Boilermakers, including defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal.
Neal had anchored Purdue’s defensive front for two seasons before suffering a knee injury that ended his 2018 season, and the rehab process has bled into his 2019 season as well, as he hasn’t seen the field at all this season despite hoping to make it back for the season-opener.
Another major contributor that fell to injury is linebacker Markus Bailey. Bailey is a strong presence on the field and in Purdue’s locker room and will likely be playing on Sundays soon. After finally breaking the 100-tackle mark in 2018 after 89- and 97-tackle seasons in 2017 and 2016, Bailey entered this year as one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten but fell to a knee injury in just the second game of the season.
Starting center Viktor Beach, backup guard D.J. Washington and freshman safety Marvin Grant all fell to season-ending injuries as well.
Key linebacker Cornell Jones is questionable after missing the last two games with a leg injury, and a handful of other depth additions are questionable as well.
Rough rushing defense
Indiana is potentially facing its first game without starting sophomore running back Stevie Scott, who has proven to be a major foothold for the Indiana offense despite the focus on passing to supplement the run. If Scott can’t go, Purdue might be one of the best matchups for Indiana’s backup tailbacks.
If a 64 is an average grade in each category for Pro Football Focus, only Purdue defensive end Georga Karlaftis (71) has posted an above-average grade against the run over the course of the season. The Boilermakers clearly miss Markus Bailey and Lorenzo Neal in this aspect of their defense.
During Big Ten play, Purdue has only limited its opponent’s leading rusher below 100 yards once – against Iowa. It did limit Maryland’s Javon Leake to 79 yards but allowed quarterback Tyrell Pigrome to eclipse the 100-yard mark instead.
But Indiana hasn’t shown much of what Ronnie Walker and Sampson James can do out of the backfield, and what has been shown hasn’t necessarily popped. The coaching staff has expressed “complete confidence” in its backup tailbacks leading up to the game this week and has sung their praises – particularly James’ potential and Walker’s pass protection – all season long.
James seems to be the backup running back in terms of carrying the ball behind Scott, though Scott has dominated carries and is only spelled by Walker in passing scenarios. The freshman has carried the ball a total of 48 times to Walker’s 17. Indiana fans saw the most from James in the second half of the Eastern Illinois blowout, when he carried the ball a season-high 12 times and only recorded 22 yards and his first career touchdown.
James did get into the game against Michigan after Scott went down and stacked nine carries against the Wolverines. Offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer expressed content in what he saw from James last week, including one run in particular, when James found space on the edge and ran for a career-long 12 yards. His other eight carries went for 16.
DeBoer also sad both backs are capable in the passing game, but that certainly seems to be more of Ronnie Walker’s lane. He’s only brought in nine catches this season, but his long touchdown catch against Connecticut showed his comfort in space.
If Indiana needs to use two backs while Stevie Scott regains health, Purdue seems like the team to do it against.
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