Indiana fans were filled with cautious optimism heading into last week. With a fairly soft schedule remaining, the defense humming, and the offense seeming to find a rhythm, the Hoosiers were looking to make a push for a bowl game.
However, Illinois must not have read the script because they defeated up-and-coming Indiana in overtime, eliminating the Hoosiers from bowl contention. So, what does Indiana even have to play for against Michigan State?
Legitimacy.
As it stands, most of the conference is able to put Indiana on their schedule in the win column. If Tom Allen wants teams to take himself and his team seriously next season, he needs to make them.
Michigan State has struggled this season, and this is a game the Hoosiers can walk away from with a statement win. Here's how I think they can get it done on Saturday.
The secondary needs to step up
I never like to pin a loss on anything specific because there's so many levels to a football game, and thousands of moments during a game for mistakes to be made. That said, if Indiana's secondary had stayed solid against Illinois, Indiana would still be in bowl contention.
The Illini started their backup quarterback, John Paddock, last week against Indiana. Paddock proceeded to throw for 507 yards and four touchdowns. This gets even more impressive when you find out he only completed 24 passes. That equates to a little over 21 yards per completion.
To clarify, the NFL defines a chunk play as a run over 10 yards, or a completed pass over 20 yards. Paddock completed 66% of his passes and only threw one interception. This means on a given throw, Paddock was 24x more likely to complete a pass for a chunk play than he was to throw an interception. Indiana cannot win football games if this stays true.
The Spartans have not been great through the air this year. Then again, neither had Illinois. The Hoosiers don't need to be spectacular in the secondary, they just need to not shoot themselves in the foot every possession. The offense has been clicking, but it doesn't matter how many points you put up if you can't stop your opponent from doing the same.
Force the ball to Donaven McCulley
A few weeks ago I said that Indiana needs to spread the ball around on offense if they want to win. That was ill-advised and I would very much like to revise that statement. Donaven McCulley needs to get the ball as much as possible.
The former signal-caller turned wide receiver has been on an absolute tear for Indiana lately. Against Illinois he put up 11 receptions for 137 yards and two touchdowns.
McCulley has a unique combination of size and quickness. He's able to high point passes over defenders for contested catches, but he also runs precise routes and can outrace most of the Big Ten to the end zone when he gets in space.
With a young quarterback like Brendan Sorsby, it is so important that he has a receiver with a big catch radius. That is to say that if Sorsby's ball placement is off, McCulley is able to corral it, simultaneously moving the chains and keeping his quarterback's confidence up.
It makes sense that Indiana put up 45 points in the game where McCulley got the ball as much as he did. If they want to continue their offensive onslaught against the Spartans, McCulley has to remain a big part of the offense.
Win the turnover battle
There is a very reasonable chance that Indiana's secondary is not able to achieve the goal that I set forth above. I would also suggest that there is a good chance the offense is able to have a lot of success against the Spartans. This leaves the Hoosiers in a shootout. What's the best way to win a shootout? Force turnovers.
Indiana was able to force a turnover against Illinois, but they also threw an interception right back. Had the won the turnover battles, had they stopped just one scoring opportunity and turned it into a score themselves, might they have won the game?
Considering the narrow margin of defeat, I have to believe that would be the case.
As it stands, though, Indiana has the chance to write a new script in this game. If they're able to steal a couple extra chances from the Spartans, they'll be in a good position to walk away from their last home game of the season with another tally in the win column.
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