At 15-7 on the year, the Indiana Hoosiers find themselves firmly in the thick of the tournament discussion, possibly the first of Archie Miller’s Indiana career. TheHoosier.com will take a look at what has gotten Indiana to this point, what’s worked, what hasn’t, and where they need to improve.
What's Working
While Indiana may not be the most explosive team offensively, there have been a few key strengths that they’ve been able to rely on all season long; offensive rebounding has been one of those.
The Hoosiers own an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.9% on the season, good for 28th nationally and 3rd in the Big Ten. Indiana has two players inside the top 200 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage in Joey Brunk and Trayce Jackson-Davis, who sit at 10.4% and 11.5% respectively.
The Hoosiers have also been able to carry their rebounding success over to the defensive end of the floor, where they are holding opponents to an offensive rebounding percentage of just 23.6%, 20th nationally and tops in the Big Ten. With the two big line-up Indiana tends to utilize, winning on the boards is a must for the success of this basketball team.
Another area of strength for Indiana has been their ability to get to the free throw line, likely as a by product of just how much this team forces the ball through the paint. 55.9% of Indiana’s points on the season have come from inside the arc, the 43rd highest total in the country.
As a result of that, the Hoosiers have made a living at the line, recording a free throw rate of 42.4% on the season, leading to over 22% of their points on the season coming from the foul line, the second highest total in the Big Ten.
What's Not Working
Despite a strong start to the season, the Indiana offense has really started to fall off as of late. The season numbers still look respectable (Indiana currently sits at 53rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency rating at 109.5 according to KenPom) but as the season has progressed, those numbers have continued to dip.
Since entering conference play, Indiana’s offensive efficiency rating has fallen to 98.3, ranking 12th in the Big Ten. There have been two major areas that have hindered the Indiana offense, their lack of floor spacing and consistent issues in the turnover department.
Indiana currently holds the worst turnover rate in the Big Ten in conference play at 19.3%, while their three-point percentage has dipped to 30.2% in conference play, good for 10th in the conference. The Hoosiers have received some better shooting performances of late, including knocking down nine such attempts against Maryland and seven attempts against Ohio State, but the overall body of work leaves a lot to be desired.
With Indiana mostly utilizing a two-big line-up featuring Jackson-Davis and Brunk, floor spacing is a must to give those two room to work on the inside. Jackson-Davis in particular has struggled at times to get going in conference play, likely as a result of Indiana’s opponents crowding the paint and forcing Indiana to consistently knock down shots from behind the arc.
Jackson-Davis’ offensive win shares (estimated number of wins contributed by a player due to his offensive production) sit at 2.6 on the season. However, if we shift those numbers to conference play, they dip down to just 1.0. A similar drop off can be seen for Brunk as well, as his offensive win shares for the season sit at 0.9 on the season but dip down to 0.4 in conference play.
This can likely be attributed in part due to an increase in the level of competition, but Indiana’s shooting struggles certainly aren’t doing their inside game any favors. If opponents are allowed to continue to drop into the paint without repercussions, the offensive struggles will likely persist for Indiana.
X-Factor Moving Forward
Indiana’s struggles on the perimeter have been well documented. Indiana’s guard rotation of Rob Phinisee, Al Durham, Devonte Green, and Armaan Franklin have been hit or miss at best and no one has been able to step up consistently. Archie Miller has talked at length about the guards needing to be ready to shoot to open up the paint and while we haven’t seen that consistently from any one member of the backcourt, there is another name who has started to step into that role: Jerome Hunter.
Hunter’s early season struggles had been well documented. After returning from missing all of last season with an undisclosed leg injury, Hunter was expected to deliver on the promise he showed before being shut down for the season. Unfortunately, that promise was not evident at first.
Hunter struggled through much of the season, posting averages of 4.2 points per game and 2.0 rebounds per game on 35.6% from the field along with 26.8% from behind the arc. Growing pains were expected for a freshman getting his first taste of college action, especially one who had to take nearly a year off from the game itself, but recently we have started to see signs of the talent we heard so much about last season.
The talented freshman had his best game of the season against Maryland, recording 12 points and 4 rebounds for the game, including knocking down a trio of three pointers. He followed that performance up with another solid outing against Ohio State, recording 9 points and a couple three pointers as well.
For a team devoid of shooters, the growing emergence of Jerome Hunter could prove to be a major boost for an Indiana team that is looking for pieces to step up on the perimeter. Whether Hunter can continue to build upon his recent performances remains to be seen, but his natural talent is finally starting to show at perhaps just the right time for Indiana.
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