After Indiana’s 72-59 loss to No. 23 Oregon in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday afternoon at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Hoosiers trudged off the court knowing their NCAA Tournament fate was no longer in their hands.
Now, Indiana waits.
Selection Sunday looms, and for head coach Mike Woodson and his team, the next few days will be an uneasy blend of hope and anxiety.
It wasn’t the statement performance Indiana was looking for in its final pre-selection showcase. A formidable Ducks squad, battle-tested and sharp, pulled away late behind a pair of backbreaking runs, leaving the Hoosiers scrambling to maintain their tenuous grip on an at-large bid.
What once seemed like a solid tournament resume now rests on a razor’s edge, with bid thieves lurking and Selection Sunday uncertainty looming. Still, Woodson and his players remain steadfast in their belief that Indiana belongs in the NCAA Tournament field.
“I think we should be in the [NCAA] Tournament because we’ve got some big wins,” forward Malik Reneau said after leading the Hoosiers with 19 points. “Not only against Michigan State, but we got Purdue at home and then we swept [Ohio State] too. I think we had some solid wins.”
Indiana’s resume, while boasting a handful of quality victories, is littered with frustratingly close losses. Reneau pointed to a one-point home loss to Maryland, a five-point defeat at Purdue, and narrow home losses to Michigan and UCLA. All four of those teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament field and entered the Big Ten Tournament as top-six seeds.
For veteran guard Trey Galloway, Indiana’s recent form should carry weight in the committee’s decision.
“We know we should be a tournament team,” Galloway said. “The way we’ve been playing the last month and a half, we’ve been playing like a tournament team.”
Galloway highlighted near-misses, including the Maryland game, where a late Rodney Rice 3-pointer stole a victory from Indiana, and the Purdue matchup, where a Trey Kaufman-Renn hook shot sealed a crushing road defeat at Mackey Arena. The Hoosiers were competitive in plenty of their losses this season, but in the end, simply being competitive doesn’t punch tickets to March Madness.
Now, the challenge for Indiana is convincing the selection committee that Thursday’s loss to Oregon was an outlier.
“I think we’re playing some of our best basketball,” Woodson said. “This afternoon wasn’t an indication of how we’ve been playing. These last two weeks, I think we’ve been playing some pretty damn good basketball.”
Indiana's Big Ten Tournament battle with Oregon was a strong chance for the Hoosiers to solidify their tournament status. A win likely would have locked them into the field, avoiding Dayton and the First Four. But after falling to the Ducks for the second time in nine days, the Hoosiers’ position has grown precarious.
Now, all they can do is watch and wait.
The biggest threat to Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes? Bid thieves. If teams outside the projected field steal automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments, Indiana’s bubble could burst. Their fate now rests in the hands of the selection committee and the chaos of championship weekend.
“It’s been a good run since I’ve been here,” Woodson said. “I’m just hoping that it’s not over yet.”
That’s the prevailing sentiment within the Hoosiers’ locker room. They believe they belong. They believe they’ve done enough. But belief doesn’t stamp a team's ticket to the Big Dance, and all Indiana can do now is hope.
If Indiana sneaks in, Dayton and the First Four likely await. But if a couple of bid thieves crash the party, the Hoosiers’ season—and Woodson's tenure in Bloomington–could end in an abrupt, unceremonious heartbreak.
Despite the uncertainty, guard Anthony Leal remains confident that Indiana has done enough.
“I believe that we’re one of the best teams in the country,” Leal said. “Definitely a top-64 team. I know that we belong in the tournament.”
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