The calendar has officially turned to March, and life on the NCAA Tournament bubble is becoming more nerve-racking by the day. Rivals.com’s Rob Cassidy and Travis Graf will spend the two weeks ahead attempting to save some fan bases anxiety by predicting the future in a handful of installments of “In or Out.”
In or Out is not a reflection of where things currently stand. Instead, it’s a projection of how things may shake out when all the games are played.
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2022 Rankings: Rivals150 | Team | Position
2023 Rankings: Rivals150
2024 Rankings: Top 40
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INDIANA
Cassidy: IN. The Hoosiers would likely be in if the committee was meeting today. Unfortunately for Mike Woodson’s team, that’s not the case. In order to feel comfortable, the Hoosiers are going to need to win at least one Big Ten tournament game, as they’ll square off with Michigan in their opener. Depending on how things shake out elsewhere in the week ahead, that game may even morph into a must-win situation for the ninth-seeded Hoosiers. Indiana was one point away from locking up a bid on Saturday, when it fell 69-67 to No. 8 Purdue, but I like its chances against an unpredictable Michigan squad. A NET ranking in the low 40s may help the Hoosiers sneak in regardless, but a win against the Wolverines would lock things up.
Graf: OUT. The way I see things currently, Indiana has to win one, maybe two games in the Big Ten tournament to secure a spot in the field. I’m not sure that the Hoosiers will make it past Michigan in the first round, let alone win multiple games. Michigan is still trying to secure a spot itself and I give it the slightest advantage over Indiana in that matchup. Indiana has dropped the ball on a couple of key chances to secure a tournament berth and is fighting uphill to get into the field at this point.
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BYU
Cassidy: OUT. The Cougars’ weekend WCC Tournament loss to fellow bubble dweller San Francisco sealed the casket on the school’s NCAA Tournament chances. There are reports that the athletic department is on the hunt for an opponent for a last-minute game designed to bolster its resume, but finding a suitable foe will prove difficult at this late stage. The fact that the Cougars will be out of sight and, in turn, out of mind during the week ahead is also going to work against it. BYU’s NET ranking of 50 isn’t half bad and neither is it’s resume when viewed as a whole, but the fact that it can merely watch as bids are stolen and other bubble teams play their way into the field during the week ahead is less than ideal. Hosting an NIT is better than nothing, though.
Graf: OUT. BYU probably projects as one of those teams that absolutely can’t have more than one bid-stealer come out of the conference tournament as champions. The Cougars are on the outside looking in at this point and need everything to go absolutely perfect for them to be in the field. With their hopes most likely over barring a last second miracle schedule change — and win — their destiny is outside of their hands and they’re probably a handful of spots outside of the tournament currently. In terms of bubble teams, the Cougars are a respectable 7-9 against quadrant one and two opponents, but crawled to the finish line to end the season. BYU also had a few bad losses within the last couple of months to drop it out of the tournament.
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VIRGINIA TECH
Cassidy: OUT. The Hokies have gotten hot at the right time. They went 7-1 in February and have a NET ranking in the 30s. That said, Saturday’s loss to 16-15 Clemson will be a moment Virginia Tech fans end up pointing to as a flashpoint in a season that has included a number of untimely losses. The Hokies are 3-6 in Quad 1 games, which isn’t good enough for a team that lost its regular-season finale to a team hovering around .500 on the year. Tech will get a shot at the winner of the first-round ACC tournament game between Clemson and NC State, but one more win is unlikely to be enough. Mike Young’s team will likely have to find a way to get past No. 2 seed Notre Dame and into the conference semifinals in order to make a compelling case for NCAA Tournament inclusion.
Graf: OUT.
The only way I see Virginia Tech getting into the field is if it makes it to the semifinals of the ACC tournament with a win against Notre Dame, but even then it’s not a guarantee as the ACC doesn’t carry as much weight this season. The Hokies have been terrific down the stretch, so a run is very possible in a down conference, but Virginia Tech has to make that happen with the huge hole they dug for themselves early in the season. Virginia Tech looks like it'll have to leapfrog a handful of teams to make it into the big dance.
