Late last week, Penn State University canceled all in-person camps that take place on campus through June 19. That ruling included all athletic camps as well, which means Penn State football will not be hosting the summer camps that become so important around that time of the recruiting cycle. This also marks a ruling that extends the furthest past the current May 31 deadline the NCAA has in place for a recruiting dead period.
That date (June 19) falls three days short of the month-long dead period from late-June to late-July. Camps are often hosted by programs before that dead period, and after that dead period, top recruits in the country – and various other prospects who feel like they’ve earned their offers – have a small window to get in any last official visits before they typically want to commit before their senior seasons.
When the NCAA decided upon May 31, it completely eliminated the 45-day evaluation period, when coaches can travel to prospects’ schools and camps to evaluate – and usually offer – some of their top targets. So Penn State will miss hosting recruits at its spring practices, traveling to evaluate recruits near their homes, and hosting visitors and campers during summer camps in June. Given the dangers of travel during these days, the decision is not unprecedented, but if more schools cancel summer camps, the NCAA might be forced to dig into the June 1-June 22 quiet period.
That period is, perhaps, the most important period in offseason recruiting, outside of the signing period and time shortly before those signings. The camps provide opportunities for prospects to workout, in mass, with college programs and staffs, often leading to offers or creating new relationships. Staffs can further evaluate recruits they didn’t have a chance to see in the evaluation period or recruits they want to see more from, and those camps are often the plug that each power cord of a recruitment is traced back to, especially regionally. Outside of camps, prospects often make their official visits during this period. Many recruits stack every weekend in June with an official visit, sometimes more than one. At this point, in Penn State’s case, it’s unclear whether those official visits will happen, and nationally, it’s unclear how the COVID-19 outbreak will be handled during the month of June.
Given the potential effort to limit travel into June, the recruiting dead period might be pushed deep into the summer, and if it is, some serious dominoes might fall and some good-to-great prospects might be cut out of the process where they normally would be involved.
2021 quarterbacks
The quarterbacks in the 2021 class, nearest the top of Rivals’ board, have already decided where they want to go. Thirteen of the top 20 pro-style quarterbacks and 11 of the top 20 dual-threat quarterbacks are already committed, nine of those commitments coming after the NBA suspended its season due to COVID-19 on March 11, which is often the bookmark associated with the halting of sports in the United States.
The nature of the quarterback position – the fact that there’s only one, the significance of that position in general and the importance of a staff-to-quarterback relationship – often has quarterbacks committing earlier than other positions to lock up their spot in each program’s class. This dead period has expedited the process.
The rest of those quarterbacks would have made visits to programs in the spring to get on campus, if not for the first time then to become more acclimated with each program, and then would have participated in spring camps in May, June and July, such as the Elite 11 regional and national camps, as well as 7-on-7 tournaments. Granted those camps are far more significant for quarterbacks before their junior years, some 2021 quarterbacks, such as in-state standouts Duce Taylor and Ron Powlus – two quarterbacks outside of the top-50 who haven’t quite earned the offers equal to their talent and likely won’t unless they flash during their senior years – are still hoping to get in front of Power Five programs. While those quarterbacks are scrambling for connections, their spots on Power Five teams are filling up.
2022 quarterbacks
Many 2022 quarterbacks, particularly the top ones in the country, have already begun developing relationships with schools, especially if those schools already have their 2021 quarterback locked in. But, as mentioned above, the camps and tournaments that take place during the spring and summer are the most important events of a 2022 quarterback’s recruitment, in terms of his rating on recruiting sites, getting in front of college staffs and creating relationships.
This group will have a heavy effect on the future of college football because there will be movement after their college careers begin. That will be credited to the fact that they couldn’t create these early relationships that are often awarded to quarterbacks who assert themselves beginning in March and April.
Keeping the scope in-state, four-star quarterback Brady Allen is a good test case. Named one of 10 quarterbacks nationally to Rivals’ top-100, Allen will be one of the most sought-after prospects in the 2022 class. Before the dead period, he had received an offer from Wisconsin and was likely going to receive more nationally. He had taken visits to Notre Dame, Indiana and Purdue and had caught the eye of a number of other Big Ten programs as well. If the dead period extends through the June quiet period, he likely won’t be able to visit Wisconsin until after his junior season in 2020, while he will be able to travel to in-state or other nearby programs.
For quarterbacks that fall in line with Allen, which is very few, they will be making their commitments much later than the 2021 class or classes before it, unless they want to rush into a spot for a particular program.
Top 2021 recruits
Eighty of the top 200 2021 prospects are currently committed nationwide. Twenty-three of those 80 committed after March 11. That seems like a small number, but that’s more than 10 percent of the best 200 recruits in the country.
The difference between those commitments and the commitments of a typical class is that recruits can see that, in the future, there might not be many opportunities to showcase their skills and earn offers or many opportunities to create meaningful relationships with programs if they can’t meet the staffs in person. Before spots at desired schools are taken, recruits are committing to schools they’ve already developed close connections with, where they would have felt comfortable enough to drag out the process. That has expedited the commitments in the 2021 class.
Looking at the top national classes of the last three cycles – accounting for the Early Signing Period implemented in 2018, which naturally sped up the process – Georgia, which owned the top classes all three years, had two, five and five commitments before May in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The current top class (Ohio State) just secured its 17th commitment Monday. Thirty-one programs have more than five commitments as of Tuesday morning, and 11 programs have double-digit commitments.
Programs that benefit from this are the blue-blood programs (Ohio State, Clemson and Florida), programs that developed recruiting momentum early in the cycle (North Carolina, USC, Miami, Minnesota) and the programs that got in early with recruits and are normally beaten out by top programs later in the cycle (West Virginia, Virginia Tech and others).
Good examples of places prospects have fallen early in the class are West Rutgers and Cincinnati. Rutgers and Cincinnati had three and six commitments before May in the 2020 cycle and now have 10 and nine, respectively. Six of Cincinnati’s came after the dead period went into effect, and eight committed to Rutgers since then. West Virginia, a program that typically brings in one or two four-stars per cycle, already has two four-star commitments.
The top recruits in the country are still going to the top programs in the country, but some of the top mid-tier prospects are finding landing places that normally come second to bigger opportunities later in the cycle. This will likely result in a lot of shifting around when the Early Signing Period nears and programs begin to tighten the bolts on their classes.
In-state prospects
Depending on the state and the programs within the state, in-state prospects are handled differently than out-of-state recruits. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has stressed the in-state 2021 class because the talent pool within the state of Indiana for the cycle is as good as it’s been in the 21st Century. Allen has been rewarded with four commitments from in-state prospects.
Even within those commitments, the lack of promise in eventually traveling to visit other programs, such as Iowa in Cooper Jones’ case, has aided the Hoosiers’ efforts.
But for other states, where the top in-state program pushes hard for the best talent and then maintains steady relationships with potential late in-state bloomers, those seen as late bloomers or less-than-best options are taking opportunities elsewhere. Four-star Ohio running back Jaylen Anderson had maintained a strong relationship with Ohio State for well over a year, but instead of waiting for the open spot in Columbus, especially after commitments of Evan Pryor and TreVeyon Henderson, he committed to West Virginia. For prospects like Anderson, there’s a non-zero chance that a late push from top programs could sway commitments, but those prospects committing in April is fairly unheard of.
In Indiana’s case, the dead period will assist in keeping the best Indiana talent contained. The top case there is Lawrence North four-star quarterback Donaven McCulley, who released his top-five recently, which included Indiana and Purdue, the two perceived leaders in his recruitment. It also included Missouri, who was able to recruit the state early in the process and now finds itself involved with McCulley, Center Grove defensive linemen Austin Booker and Caden Curry (2022), and others. The change in staff at Michigan State forced the Spartans out of the picture without a chance to re-evaluate and reconnect with McCulley because of the dead period. Now McCulley, who was thought to be a prospect that would be tough to keep in-state from the beginning, has limited options out-of-state as the No. 202 overall prospect in the country.
2022 recruits
This is where the delay will be seen the most – this class and the 2023 class. The current circumstances have left most programs focused on the 2021 class. Entering these next few months, that’s typically the case anyway, but the 2021 class is an extreme case.
Teams are scrambling to create and maintain connections with 2021 recruits without meeting them face-to-face or evaluating them outside of edited tapes, unless there was a previous relationship.
But where the evaluation and maintenance of relationships on the back end of the 2021 class could struggle because of the dead period, the front-end aspects of a recruiting class – connection and initial evaluation – will likely struggle for the 2022 class, except for those comfortable with their 2021 classes at the moment.
Going back to the aforementioned 2022 defensive lineman Caden Curry at Center Grove. He will likely be more sought-after than anyone not named Blake Fisher in Indiana’s 2021 class, yet his offers list consists of Indiana, Cincinnati, Iowa, Purdue, Missouri, Boston College and Arizona State. His Missouri and Arizona State offers came on April 9 and April 10 but were the first offers he’d received since late-January. It’s yet to be seen because it’s early in what would have been the evaluation period, but for a recruit like Curry, even being in Indiana, he would have offers flooding in around this time. Those offers will likely come much later in his recruitment than they have for equally talented prospects in previous cycles.
Long-term effects
All of these concepts are generalizations, and each recruitment is its own case, as well as each program’s class is its own case. But there are some real long-term effects to be had in this extended dead period.
Where will the line between in-person and electronic recruiting stop when this is said and done? How do rules surrounding electronic communication change? What carry-over effect is felt in the 2022 cycle? Does this affect the Early Signing Period moving forward?
Those are all questions that will be answered with time, but what is sure to take place is intense mid-season recruiting for the 2021 class – if there is a season. With an incredibly abnormal number of prospects expected to be committed by the end of spring, teams aren’t, and rarely do, stop committing prospects at a commitment. There will likely be an equally high number of flipped commitments during the season.
To go along with potential flipped commitments, there will likely be a greater number of signings in the February signing period too. There are many prospects who will want and need to wait until their senior seasons to earn the offers they feel they deserve. Without the option of going to camps and tournaments, their games are going to need to supplement the evaluation. Without much time to make official visits during the season, many prospects will likely need to schedule those after their seasons are over.
Most of all, there are going to be far more underrated recruits in the 2022 class. The best way for prospects to become rated in any recruiting site’s system is to attend camps and tournaments. Those camps and tournaments are not taking place, so the stars and rankings won’t serve the 2022 class as well as they’ve served classes of the 21st Century, not until much later in the process.
Now, in an extreme hypothetical case, the 2022 class could be the worst recruiting victim of the effects of COVID-19 on football. If there is no football season, that class would suffer missing its entire junior season, by far the most important season of a high school prospects recruitment. If that were to be the case, college football recruiting, as we know it now, wouldn’t exist in this form, and there would be even more scrambling to find talent than there ever was in 2021. But that’s an extreme case.
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