The Hoosiers take on Ohio State at Assembly Hall today in their thirteenth Big Ten game of the season.
Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will be aired on CBS.
TheHoosier.com has gathered previews and predictions for the game below.
1. Points off turnovers -- It goes for both teams, for two reasons. One, this is one of the biggest things that killed Indiana against Iowa. Two, Ohio State at 20.9 percent has the highest turnover percentage in league play. That means the Buckeyes cough the ball up roughly one in every five possessions. Transition defense will be just as important as capitalizing on Ohio State's inevitable mistakes for Indiana.
2. Juwan Morgan's fouls -- The IU senior forward has struggled to avoid foul trouble against bigger centers in the Big Ten this season, and Wesson has 38 pounds on him. Having De'Ron Davis healthy may give Morgan more freedom to play aggressive, but he has to better understand the value of his fouls and how that trouble impacts Indiana when he can't be on the floor.
3. Bench production -- This primarily boils down to Davis and Devonte Green setting the tone with consistent performances. The better they play, the less pressure on Indiana's starters to carry the load. Having Morgan and Romeo Langford score more than half of the team's points just isn't a sustainable strategy the rest of the season.
Kaleb Wesson is Ohio State’s go-to player on offense, but the Buckeyes have had trouble keeping him on the floor because of foul issues. The sophomore big man is averaging a team-high 14.9 points per game on 52.5 percent shooting from the field, but he’s eclipsed the 30-minute mark just twice in 11 Big Ten games. In Big Ten play, Wesson is averaging 6.6 fouls per 40 minutes. When he is on the floor, Wesson is a high usage post-up player who can also step out and hit the 3-pointer (10-for-20 in Big Ten play).
Because of Wesson’s foul issues and a lack of other post scoring options, Ohio State’s offense is perimeter heavy. Senior point guard CJ Jackson has the Big Ten’s seventh best assist rate (23.9 percent) and is a 40.8 percent 3-point shooter in league play. The duo of Rob Phinisee and Devonte Green will have to be much sharper defensively than they were in Thursday’s effort against Jordan Bohannon. Jackson is marginal inside the 3-point line (44.6 percent on 2s), so Indiana needs to work to keep him in the midrange as much as possible.
Three Strengths
▪ Playing through the post: It's been a breakout season for sophomore forward Kaleb Wesson. He's turned himself into a strong finisher and one of the Big Ten's better rebounders, and he even has a solid assist rate. He uses more than 30 percent of Ohio State possessions.
▪ Season recovery: Chris Holtmann can sympathize with Archie Miller. After a 12-1 start, Ohio State crumbled in January, losing five-straight. But the Buckeyes have recovered in the last two weeks, winning three of four and pushing their way back into the NCAA tournament conversation.
▪ Top thievery: Ohio State is third in the Big Ten in league games in opponent turnover rate. Conference opponents are giving the ball away on 19.3 percent of possessions against the Buckeyes.
Predictions and Probabilities
TheHoosier.com Staff Predictions
Jon Sauber: Indiana 72, Ohio State 65
Stu Jackson: Indiana 70, Iowa 60
KenPom
Indiana 67, Ohio State 65 (57 percent confidence)
Thrill Score: 66.9 (No. 1 among Sunday's games)
ESPN
Indiana 62.8 percent
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