Hoosier Gameday: Indiana vs. Minnesota
The Hoosiers take on Minnesota in Minneapolis today in their fourteenth Big Ten game of the season.
Tipoff is set for 2:00 p.m. ET and will be aired on ESPN2.
TheHoosier.com has gathered previews and predictions for the game below.
1. Points in the paint -- These are two of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten. Indiana is 11th out of 14 teams at 32.7 percent, Minnesota is dead last at 31 percent. Chances are, the points are going to have to come in the paint. Given the size and rebounding ability of the Gophers' frontcourt, perhaps it would be beneficial for Indiana to put Juwan Morgan and De'Ron Davis on the floor together for extended periods of time.
2. De'Ron Davis -- A bit of an extension of the first point, this is a game Indiana needs the version of Davis that showed up in its win at Michigan State a couple weeks ago. Morgan is capable of holding his own on the glass, as last week's season-high 14 rebounds against Ohio State showed, but an effective 6-10, 255 pound Davis would help a lot.
3. Taking care of the ball -- Just because Minnesota isn't one of the most disruptive Big Ten teams when it comes to forcing turnovers in league play doesn't mean Indiana should take it lightly. The Gophers are long and athletic and could cause problems for the Hoosiers offensively if they don't make smart decisions.
Senior Jordan Murphy is one of the best rebounders in Big Ten history and a double-double machine. Despite being undersized at just 6-foot-7, Murphy is the league’s best defensive rebounder and is currently fifth in offensive rebounding percentage.
Murphy is an efficient post-up scorer (.97 PPP, per Synergy) and is also terrific on putbacks from offensive rebounds (1.33 PPP). No Big Ten player does a better job of drawing fouls as Murphy’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is first in the league at 64 percent. He’s shooting 69.8 percent from the free throw line this season.
Minnesota is a poor 3-point shooting team (29.7 percent in Big Ten play), but having Murphy on the glass can quickly turn a missed perimeter shot into an easy putback. Given Indiana’s struggles throughout the season on the defensive boards, accounting for Murphy on the offensive glass is a key.
3. Lineup change?
Indiana has rolled with the same starting lineup — Rob Phinisee, Romeo Langford, Al Durham, Justin Smith and Juwan Morgan — for four straight games, and 14 contests overall. Might a change be in order? Forward De’Ron Davis has been a key component to IU’s team across the past thee games, and the Hoosiers are clearly a better team with him on the floor. Problem is, after a year full of injuries, his conditioning is still a work in progress. Phinisee has struggled since returning from his concussion, averaging 5.3 points and 1.6 assists across the past nine games. But does IU have a better option? Devonte Green has flashed with big shots in big moments. Consistency, coupled with his high-risk approach, remains the issue.
Predictions and Probabilities
TheHoosier.com Staff Predictions
Jon Sauber: Indiana 62, Minnesota 61
Stu Jackson: Minnesota 67, Indiana 60
KenPom
Minnesota 69, Indiana 67 (42 percent confidence)
Thrill Score: 62.3 (No. 8 among Saturday's games)
ESPN
Minnesota 53.8 percent
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