The Hoosiers take on Michigan State in East Lansing today in their eleventh Big Ten game of the season.
Tipoff is set for 6:00 p.m. ET and will be aired on ESPN.
TheHoosier.com has gathered previews and predictions for the game below.
1. Keeping Juwan Morgan out of foul trouble -- Michigan State has a luxury Indiana does not: a big frontcourt deepened by additional size off the bench. Nick Ward is a load at the five, and his 7.9 fouls drawn per 40 minutes ranks fourth nationally according to KenPom. If Indiana finds itself having to go to its bench with Morgan picking up two early fouls, this game will get ugly quickly.
2. Devonte Green's involvement -- Coming off a three-game suspension, it will be interesting to see the extent of his role Saturday night. With Al Durham Jr. moving into the starting lineup, Indiana's bench desperately needs someone who can shoot the ball with confidence off the bench.
3. Who steps up off the bench? -- Clifton Moore has provided some nice energy in limited opportunities, while Damezi Anderson and Jake Forrester are getting playing time that will pay off in the future. Evan Fitzner is still struggling. Altogether, it's an inexperienced that lacks confidence, but someone needs to step up and help out Indiana's starters.
Point guard Cassius Winston is firmly in the conversation for Big Ten player of the year and might be the favorite to win the award at the midway point of conference play. The Detroit native is averaging a team-best 18.5 points per game and has the nation’s sixth best assist rate at 41.6 percent. He’s shooting 45.5 percent on 3s, 51.4 percent on 2s and 79 percent from the free throw line. The 6-foot-1 junior can make opponents pay with his ability to set up teammates or torch the nets from deep. He’s had five or more assists in each of Michigan State’s last nine games.
Look for Michigan State to go inside early and often to establish junior Nick Wardwith the intention of getting Juwan Morgan into foul trouble. Ward currently ranks in the top 12 of the league in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage and is fourth in the league in free throw rate (FTA/FGA). At 6-foot-9 and 245 pounds, Ward is a solid finisher in the paint with good hands and footwork that has improved over the course of his career.
About the matchup: Morgan and Langford are legitimate All-Big Ten-caliber players. Together, that should put stress on a defense. But Indiana’s woeful perimeter shooting and lack of ball movement — the Hoosiers are last in the Big Ten in assists at 9.2 per game, half of MSU’s output — makes the scouting report simple. Matt McQuaid draws another defensive challenge in Langford, who’s a different sort of player than Carsen Edwards — not the volume shooter, but better off the drive. Aaron Henry is likely to spend time on Langford, as well. Morgan can get opposing bigs in foul trouble, but MSU has the depth there to handle it, if it happens. Indiana will need a third scorer to emerge and to find some confidence and swagger to have any chance at keeping the score within a stone’s throw.
Prediction: It’s been a weird week off for MSU. But Indiana is in a bad place right now, facing a rested team, on the road. I just don’t see how the Hoosiers keep up.
Make it: MSU 81, Indiana 67
Predictions and Probabilities
TheHoosier.com Staff Predictions
Stu Jackson: Michigan State 83, Indiana 60
Jon Sauber: Michigan State 81, Indiana 57
KenPom
Michigan State 79, Indiana 62 (93 percent confidence)
Thrill Score: 37.9 (No. 52 among Saturday's games)
ESPN
Michigan State 92.9 percent
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