BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana basketball, on the heels of its first conference loss this campaign just three days ago in Lincoln, is back in action in primetime Saturday for a date with the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Hoosiers (10-4, 2-1) were dismantled at the hands of Nebraska, not to mention with the aid of 19 IU giveaways. Reinstating Xavier Johnson from injury was hoped to be a positive force for IU, but instead only compounded the struggles the backcourt's had this season. In defeat to the Cornhuskers on the road, the reopening to conference play was rude, a game Mike Woodson called "a good ass whooping."
Ohio State (12-2, 2-1), resurgent this season after an up-and-down campaign a season ago, comes into Bloomington for a game under the eyes of the nation this evening. In the earlier contest of the Wednesday double-header, just before Indiana and Nebraska tipped off, the Buckeyes outlasted Rutgers at home to improve to 2-1 in the Big Ten.
Before tonight's tip in Assembly Hall, preview the matchup and take an in-depth look at the Buckeyes:
Opponent Profile
Head Coach: Chris Holtmann
Career Record: 249-162, 135-77 at Ohio State
13th year as head coach, seventh season with Buckeyes
Holtmann, a three-time Coach of the Year spanning three different conferences (2013: Big South, 2017: Big East, 2018: Big Ten), is in his seventh hear at the helm of the Buckeye program in Columbus.
Holtmann's career has included stops as the head coach of Gardner-Webb for three seasons and Butler for three seasons before taking the OSU job in 2017. In five of the first six seasons under his guidance, the Buckeyes have posted winning seasons and finished with a winning record in the Big Ten in four separate seasons.
After just 16 total wins in the 2022-23 campaign, the Buckeyes have bounced back and are just four wins shy of their mark from a year ago.
This Season
KenPom: 29th (IU 93rd)
Torvik: 20th (102nd)
EvanMiya: 23rd (88th)
NET ranking: 36th (111th)
Ohio State's analytical KenPom profile features a lot of green on both sides of the column, but the conversation with the Buckeyes must start with their top-25 offense.
An adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.8 comes with a surprisingly slower tempo than offenses of this caliber generally operate at. Ohio State takes its time to find the shot it wants and converts them at a high rate – as a team, the Buckeyes possess an effective field goal percentage of 52.9%. OSU's 37.9 team three-point shooting percentage is 25th-best in the sport this season.
Although the identity of the Buckeyes begins with their offense, the defense is a steady unit as well – ranking in the top 60 of all teams in the country with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.9. They hold opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.3%, and have a +13.7 point margin this season – scoring 79.1 and allowing just 65.4 per evening.
- Sophomore guard Bruce Thornton is one of three prolific double-digit scorers for the Buckeyes this season, leading the charge with 17.4 points per outing this season. His individual offensive rating of 131.8 is a team-high – and 53rd in the entire country – while toting the team's highest assist rate. The 6-foot-2 guard has started all 14 contests for Ohio State this year.
- Sophomore guard Roddy Gayle Jr. is back with Ohio State after a solid freshman campaign, and he's in a prominent scoring role this season as his game has expanded. Gayle utilizes 25.0% of the Buckeye possessions and owns an offensive rating of 112.8, scoring 14.9 points per game on a nearly 50% clip.
- Minnesota transfer and fifth-year senior forward Jamison Battle has been everything you could want of an instantly impactful contributor this season. A lethal shooter from outside, Battle is nearly a 45% shooter from three with 42 makes on 94 attempts this season. He averages 14.9 points as well, the final part of the three-headed snake that is at the forefront of the OSU scoring surge on a nightly basis.
- Senior Zed Key has made just one start in 14 appearances this season, but the 6-foot-8 forward is a vital piece of the Buckeye bench unit. His 123.2 individual offensive rating is second-best on the team, only trailing Thornton despite his limited role. He plays just 46.9% of the minutes for OSU as he splits time in a frontcourt rotation within Holtmann's system, but he uses 22.7% of the possessions and takes 19.1% of the shots when on the floor. That leads to 9.1 points a game for the Buckeyes on a nightly basis. He's also one of America's best crashers of the offensive glass this season, with an OR% of 15.6. That's 23rd-best among all qualified contributors.
- It's sophomore forward Felix Okpara that Key splits a majority of his time with, who sees 47.4% of the total OSU minutes on the floor manning the middle. Standing 6-foot-11 and 235 pounds, Okpara possesses Ohio State's top field goal percentage (64.8%) and is dependable for 6.3 points and 6.5 rebounds a night. His rebound averages lead the Buckeyes.
- Evan Mahaffey, a sophomore 6-foot-6 wing, rounds out the projected starting five for the Buckeyes. The Penn State transfer has struggled to find efficiency as a scorer in his first season in Columbus, and of players who see the floor regularly, he takes the lowest percentage of shots in the OSU offense.
About 30.9% of the Buckeyes' minutes come from its bench unit, where players like Key, Dale Bonner and Scotty Middleton are generally to be counted on for regular appearances. Bonner and Middleton average 6.0 and 4.6 points per contest respectively, with both capable of impactful performances in the second unit.
Storylines to monitor...
How does IU bounce back? Can they?
Indiana lost a game that wasn't competitive down the stretch in Lincoln on Wednesday evening, and the conference schedule is unrelenting – even in a year where the conference lacks the top-to-bottom strength it usually possessed in years prior. That means that results matter, and if not in victory, losses must inspire some sort of confidence there can be a path forward to rectify it. Unfortunately for IU, the former didn't happen and the latter provided seldom straws to grasp at.
There's no time to lick wounds. A strong opponent enters Assembly Hall with the opportunity to knock off the Hoosiers on their home floor. Even in the trials and tribulations IU has had on the road, one thing has stood true for the majority of Woodson's tenure: the importance to defend home court.
With the eyes of a national, primetime FOX audience and adversity mounting, the time is now for a response that provides spark for a turnaround. The outlook is understandably a bit bleak, but not all is lost on this season by any means. It's just a rougher path ahead when, in the end, a higher number of total victories is likely required to find itself with a fighting chance to save the season from a worse fate.
That process *has* to start Saturday night if there's any intention to be had about it.
Eliminating turnovers must be top of mind
Plain and simple, it's nearly impossible to win in any conference – let alone the Big Ten – when you give away 19 possessions by way of your own mistake. The Hoosiers shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, not allowing itself the opportunity to draw close enough to threaten Nebraska at all in the rout of IU on Wednesday night. Mistakes continued to pile, and the Huskers happily capitalized.
They won't be the only happy customers to do so this season if Indiana is repeatedly so generous.
Granted, IU likely won't turn the ball over to that extreme of a level many times ever. But Indiana must ensure it's more careful with the ball in general – putting more pressure on the defense and giving itself a better chance at changing the fortune of the season.
IU's offensive struggles are already well-documented when it keeps the ball and possessions stall out or go empty. If Indiana starts to make a bad habit of being careless with the ball, then the situation becomes more dire.
Quick Hitters
Who?: Indiana (10-4, 2-1 in Big Ten play) vs. RV/RV Ohio State (12-2, 2-1 in Big Ten play)
Series History: Indiana leads, 110-88. (Last Meeting: IU 86, OSU 70 on 1/28/23 in Bloomington)
When?: Saturday, January 6, 8:00 p.m. ET
Where?: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana
TV: FOX: Gus Johnson (play-by-play), Jim Jackson (color), Allison Williams (sideline)
Radio: IU Radio Network, Don Fischer (play-by-play), Errek Suhr (analyst), John Herrick
Vegas: Ohio State -1.5, o/u 148.5
KenPom: Ohio State 76-73, 63% chance of a Buckeye victory
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