BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – When Xavier Johnson scored 18 points in just his second game back from injury against Ohio State, the sixth-year senior guard appeared to have turned a corner.
He hadn't felt like himself, Johnson said, and was forcing it too much in his return versus Nebraska just three nights prior. While starting, he played just 14 minutes and went scoreless in an ugly road loss to the Huskers.
Mike Woodson knew he wasn't productive enough, even despite the small workload, but still kept his faith in his appointed team captain. He knew his point guard was forcing it, but in reward for his trust that evening, his impact earned Johnson a game ball.
"I let the game [come] to myself," Johnson said the night of January 6, reflecting upon his performance in IU's win over the Buckeyes. "I trusted my coaching staff, my teammates to make the right play."
In the four games since, that production has yet to replicate itself. Outings of 24, 17, 20 and 24 minutes have netted just three made field goals total. He's been tagged with flagrant fouls on two separate occasions – one worth an ejection in Piscataway after a low blow to Rutgers' Antwone Woolfolk, and a deliberate shot to the chest against Purdue's Zach Edey.
As of late, he's lost his starting job to freshman guard Gabe Cupps, who's assumed the role he once was just keeping warm while Johnson worked to return from his lower body injury.
But lingering questions about suffering guard play – a season-long trend for this year's team still not rectified two-thirds of the way through the year – and a week-long break between games has raised the question over who should quarterback the Indiana offense on the floor to begin games down the season's stretch.
Johnson scored eight points and had a couple of drives in the second half of Friday night's game at Wisconsin that looked, to the naked eye, reminiscent of his past flashes of positive output. Finding consistency, however, remains a struggle.
"I thought he was better [Friday]," Woodson said postgame in Madison. "I thought he showed some signs of trying to lead and do the right thing. So we'll look hard at it this week, see if he can earn his spot back. If he does, then we'll probably have him back in the lineup. It all depends on how he comes to work and produces in practice to get where he needs to get.
"We've just got to get some guard play for this team, get them going."
Having played in all 19 games this season and making starts in 10 of them, Cupps has assumed the role for his ability to defend with a hard-nosed mentality and intensity, while also complimenting it with some ability to guide the offense through periods of success. Yet, his 87.2 individual offensive rating this season is the second lowest mark of any Hoosier this season, with only CJ Gunn's 79.6 checking in lower.
Cupps' game is absent of a consistent scoring threat that would elevate his floor game to a new level, but he still needs time to develop. The ideal situation for this team heading into the year didn't involve Cupps seeing so much of the floor in his freshman year out of necessity, but doing so would've been rather seen as a luxury.
Yet, the situation Indiana has found itself in spurs a decision upon Woodson and his staff: continue to roll with the punches of an up-and-down season that Xavier Johnson has endured so far, or further develop the young freshman guard who could be an integral part of the future.
So far this season, Indiana's usual four starters of Trey Galloway, Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau and Kel'el Ware have an adjusted team efficiency margin of +45.9 with Cupps as the fifth option. As a unit, they combine for an adjusted team offensive efficiency of 123.2 and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 77.3 (context: higher numbers for offense are preferred, as are lower numbers for defense).
Throughout the Big Ten, only two lineups with at least 100 possessions have a larger positive efficiency margin – Purdue's starting five and Illinois' starting five. Up the minimum number of possessions to 200, and Indiana's five-man unit with Cupps at the helm is second in the conference, and more impressively, fourth in the country.
Now, switching out Johnson for Cupps and keeping the same four surrounding starters, that efficiency margin drops to +14.7. The offensive efficiency comes in at 109.4, and the defensive efficiency rises to 94.6.
Keeping the same minimum possessions at 100, only four of the 24 lineups to share the floor that often have a worse overall efficiency margin.
However, analytical data has its own disparities with regard to the comparison of the two. According to EvanMiya.com, where all of this data is coming from, Johnson has been Indiana's fifth-best player this season, trailing Ware, Mgbako, Reneau and Galloway. BPR, a measure of a player's individual impact and overall value to a team when on the floor, grades Johnson out to a 2.73.
For reference of other guards throughout the conference, Braden Smith's BPR is 8.62, Terrence Shannon's is 6.90, Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard have 5.69 and 5.61 respectively. Johnson's 2.73 rates him as the Big Ten's 70th-best player by BPR this season of all players with 250 possessions played.
Cupps comes in as Indiana's sixth-best player, but also with a considerable drop in individual performance. Cupps' 0.60 BPR is 108th among players with minimum 250 possessions across the conference.
Yet, Indiana's best two-man, three-man, four-man and five-man lineups this season all involve Cupps, not Johnson. Despite his lower individual impact, it speaks to the fingerprints on winning that Woodson has raved about ever since he arrived on campus.
Analytics haven't been kind to Indiana as a whole, for a variety of reasons of course, but some are not as harsh as originally thought to be. A team that floats in the 80-100 range depending on measurement is currently nowhere near an NCAA Tournament bid, yet features one of the best five-man lineups across all of college basketball with sustained run on the floor together – with Cupps leading it.
Numbers suggest it comes at the exchange of a sixth-year starter – one appointed to be one of Indiana's two captains and senior leaders heading into this year – for a freshman guard who is still in the process of learning and evolving at this level of basketball.
Woodson has rolled with his young gun as of late, but liked what he saw from Johnson in Madison. Will the change stay permanent, or is a revert back in the cards? More importantly, will it matter enough to make a difference on the rest of the year or does a decision like this carry weight into the upcoming outlook on the team?
Whether or not the answers affect the questioning is in the hands of the third-year coach.
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