Indiana plays its first neutral site game of the season in New York City at Madison Square Garden, as Connecticut is next on the schedule and presents perhaps the toughest nonconference test remaining on the Indiana schedule.
Connecticut is coming off three consecutive wins as it heads into its fourth neutral site game of the season when Indiana and the Huskies meet in Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.
The Huskies have proven to be more dangerous at this point in the season than early projections would have rated them, but at No. 51 nationally according to KenPom.com, Connecticut is the least likely remaining nonconference opponent for Indiana to defeat. The Hoosiers have a 59-percent chance at victory.
Connecticut has already beaten Florida, who was rated No. 34 in the nation by KenPom, and it took Xavier (No. 27) to double-overtime but eventually lost. That’s the same Huskies team that lost to St. Joseph’s (No. 246).
What it means
As Indiana played seven nonconference opponents outside the Power Five ranks, there was an idea that the true identity of the team wouldn’t be discovered until it played a stronger team. The bar was set high in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, when the Hoosier defeated No. 17 Florida State but then dropped extremely low after their uninspired 20-point loss to 4-4 Wisconsin in Madison.
“The feeling in your body after a loss, especially after you experience it for the first time all year, it’s one of those things where nothing works anymore, nothing’s right anymore. Look, you’re somewhere in the middle,” Miller said after the Wisconsin game. “This feeling that’s in us right now, it’s not going to go away until we work it out.”
Indiana is still trying to find its footing with health and identity, as Rob Phinisee isn’t likely to play Tuesday and has missed most of the season with numerous injuries and Devonte Green had a minor injury after the Florida State game that left him limited in practice before the road trip. Miller used a number of sets and lineups to counter Wisconsin on Saturday, but none of the changes were getting much traction.
Whether changes will be made for the Connecticut game or whether Miller and the Hoosiers will try to push through the adversity created for themselves will be determined Tuesday night and will begin to define how this team approaches similar situations later in the season.
What to look for in UConn
Staples
Connecticut is led by senior guard Chrstian Vital, who scores 14.8 points per game and brings down 8.3 rebounds. Vital is having the best season of his career so far. He’s always averaged at least 14 points per game, but the other areas of his game have seen improvements statistically since his junior year.
Perhaps what makes him most dangerous is his ability to take the ball away. Vital has the 12th-best steal percentage among players nationally within his usage bracket (considered a major contributor to his team). His rebounding percentage and assist percentage have also seen rises.
Forward Josh Carlton is used on 28.9 percent of Connecticut’s possessions, which is within the top-100 nationally. The Huskies go to their 6-foot-11 junior early and often on the inside, and he rewards them with 12 points per game and just over seven rebounds. Indiana has not faced an offensive rebounder like Carlton yet this season. He brings down more than three offensive rebounds per game, which rates No. 63 among players nationally who are used as often as he is.
Blocked shots
The Huskies are one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country, as they rank No. 18 nationally in total blocked shots. Freshman forward Akok Akok, at just 6-foot-9, has a 10.4 block percentage, which is just a tick outside of the top-100 single-season performances of the decade in that category so far. Forward Josh Carlton is currently in the top-100 among all players used on 28 percent or more of their teams possessions in blocking percentage as well.
A shot-blocking presence will present numerous challenges for Indiana, who likes to drive to the basket with its guards.
But that shot-blocking presence doesn’t really transfer to other areas of the post. Connecticut ranks 317th in the nation in two-point field goal percentage and 201st in total rebounds.
Three-point shots
The downside to having a strong presence on the inside defensively is surrendering shots from the perimeter, but Connecticut has found a way to defend the perimeter as well. Teams shoot just over 28 percent from three against Connecticut. Only three teams out of eight have shot better than 30 percent from three against the Huskies this season.
Wealth of scoring options
Just as Archie Miller describes his team as being capable from top to bottom, Connecticut has a rotation of players who are all capable in different scenarios. The area with the most wealth is scoring. Four Husky starters average double-digit scoring, and freshman James Bouknight comes off the bench and scores 11 points per game. Sophomore guard Brendan Adams also comes off the bench and scores just under 10 points per game.
Akok Akok is the only underclassman who starts, and while he isn't much of a scoring threat, he provides many other challenges, as detailed above, with his length.
The majority of the offense is filtered through Carlton and Vital, but they have plenty of help, much like Devonte Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis for Indiana.
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