Indiana begins one of the toughest stretches of its schedule at one of the most crucial points in the 2019-20 season when it travels to Ann Arbor to play Michigan on Sunday.
Michigan is tied with Indiana at 6-7 in the Big Ten, but those numbers can be deceiving. The Wolverines were one of the Big Ten’s best before losing Isaiah Livers, their leading scorer, for a month due to injury. Without Livers, Michigan went 2-5. With him – while, yes, many of the games were in non-conference play – Michigan went 13-4.
Livers has been back with Michigan for three games. The Wolverines lost the first game to Illinois, and Livers scored seven points. But in his second game back, Livers scored 14, with four rebounds and two blocks, in a win over Michigan State. He had 17 in Michigan’s most recent win – a 25-point rout at Northwestern.
Outside of Livers, all four of Michigan’s starters also average double-digit scoring, and in its last five games, Michigan has only lost once to Ohio State, which is also getting its season back on the rails.
What It Means
Indiana has not been good on the road. It’s no secret or much of a shock given the Big Ten’s collective performance away from home, but with four of its final seven games coming on the road against teams in the top-30, Indiana is one of five Big Ten teams to have one or fewer wins on the road this season. That one road win was against Nebraska, who has dropped seven home games this season and is on a current nine-game losing streak.
The Hoosiers need to start finding opportunities away from Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. It was bound to catch up with them eventually. The best team in the conference to win one or fewer games on the road is Rutgers, who sits at 17-8 and is 16-0 in Piscataway. Indiana has lost three games in Bloomington, and the near-guarantee of wins at home isn’t there anymore, after fumbling games against Arkansas and Maryland and playing uninspired against Purdue.
However, if Indiana can hold serve in its three remaining games at home – versus Penn State, Minnesota and Wisconsin – which isn’t out of the question, and provided four opportunities to win on the road, the odds of Indiana winning at least one game on the road are actually high. And the losses along the way won’t be baad losses, so the Hoosiers could piece together a Tournament resume.
With Sunday’s game being the first of the four remaining road games, Indiana could springboard itself toward a Tournament bid and out of the Thursday games played in the Big Ten Tournament with a win at Michigan.
But many variables need to lean toward the Hoosiers, starting with its backcourt play at Michigan.
Zavier Simpson vs. Rob Phinisee
If Indiana is going to have success on the road in Ann Arbor, it will start with sophomore point guard Rob Phinisee. It has seemed like the program has been waiting for Phinisee to find his groove, after he spent much of the non-conference season dealing with unlucky injuries and regaining conditioning. But the best versions of Phinisee that were seen during his freshman year typically haven’t been there this year.
He averages 2.3 turnovers per game after averaging only 1.3 last year and has committed at least one turnover in each game he’s played, including five against Iowa on Thursday night.
At this point in the season, Phinisee has played almost exactly half the minutes he played all of last season, and he’s nearly matched his total three-point shots made, with 19. He’s shooting 39 percent from behind the arc and has been solid in catch-and-shoot situations. But finishing inside has been the biggest scoring challenge for him. His field goal percentage inside three-point range (37 percent) is lower than outside.
Scoring likely won’t be the top priority for Phinisee on Sunday, though. Michigan holds its opponents to the eighth-lowest assist rate in the nation, which can be countered by passes from the post to three-point shooters on the outside but will make entry passes more difficult. Phinisee can’t afford to have five turnovers again unless Devonte Green hits seven more threes.
Zavier Simpson, a senior point guard who has emerged as one of the best at his position within the Big Ten, will be on Phinisee for much of the game. While Simpson has steadily grown to be a 12-point, eight-assist type of point guard in 2019-20, his defense causes major issues for opposing point guards, even though he only averages one steal per game.
Can Devonte Green carry over?
Archie Miller said it after the win against Iowa on Thursday – there’s no tie for Devonte Green to shell up after another stellar shooting performance. Miller said Green hasn’t strung together two consecutive performances similar to the one he had against Iowa (27 points on seven threes).
RELATED: Indiana needs a more consistent Devonte Green to finish 2019-20
When Green is at his best, Indiana is at its best. Between some of his best performances this season, Indiana has received near-zero performances from Green. Nineteen wins seems to be the mark the Hoosiers need to hit before the Big Ten Tournament in order to have a resume worth permitting into the NCAA Tournament, and Indiana currently has 16 wins with three games remaining at home. With no guarantee whether Indiana can beat its next three opponents in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers will likely need to pick up at least one win on the road within the next five games.
If there was ever a time for Green to find a stride, now is that time.
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