Illinois has come on strong in 2019-20, and it won’t be going anywhere anytime soon either. Much of its beset talent is young. One of those contributors is sophomore guard Ayo Dosunmu, who is arguably the most fun player in the Big Ten this season. He’s averaging 16 points, four rebounds and three assists per game.
The Illini are coming off their worst stretch of basketball, a four-game losing streak to Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers, and have responded with three straight wins over Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern and are still chasing a Big Ten title, sitting in a four-way tie two games behind Maryland.
While a Tournament bid is essentially guaranteed for Illinois, there is still plenty for the Illini to play for, as there was for Purdue in Mackey Arena on Thursday.
What It Means
The final true road game of the season is multi-faceted. The disparity between the way Indiana plays on the road and the way it plays inside Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall is one of the biggest disparities in the conference. In its nine road games, Indiana has averaged 60 points per game and has won twice.
While true road games will no longer be an issue after Sunday, since most postseason games are played in neutral site settings, Indiana didn’t exactly wow in its wins over Connecticut and Notre Dame in New York City and Indianapolis, respectively. Shedding the idea that Indiana can’t win outside of Bloomington is important for a young team that has often crumbled when things go awry.
A win Sunday would also all but guarantee avoiding playing on the first day of the Big Ten Tournament. While Northwestern and Nebraska have continued their downward trends as the Big ten has progressed, the potential for losing against either of those teams is enough to play to begin tournament play Thursday.
Lastly, there are six teams in the conference within two games of each other, and Indiana is directly in the center – within one game of Michigan and Ohio State and one game ahead of Minnesota, with Rutgers and Purdue also in the mix. With Michigan’s loss to Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan have left themselves within reach of Indiana with less-than-favorable paths ahead for both teams. Indiana can place itself into good position in that race for Big Ten seeding with a win Sunday.
Illinois' rebounding, post presence
If there is one thing Illinois does well – and there are a number of things it does well – it is rebound. Illinois has the third-best rebounding rate in the country and the eighth-best offensive rebounding rate. Of its top-six players, in terms of usage, all but one average more than four rebounds per game.
That success begins with freshman Kofi Cockburn, who averages 13 points and nine rebounds per game. The 7-foot, 290-pound forward is as big of a frontcourt opponent as Indiana will play in 2019-20. He’s recorded three double-doubles in Illinois’ last four games. While he gets to the line as often as anyone on the team, he has not attempted a three-point shot this season, so he is a fairly different forward than Luka Garza, Jalen Smith and Trevion Williams, and Indiana has played well when there is just one dominant post contributor.
Purdue showed Indiana’s hand, as multiple teams have this season, when it trapped Trayce Jackson-Davis and forced Indiana’s guards to shoot. But what Purdue has that Illinois doesn’t have is size. There are seven players on the roster that average more than 18 minutes per game, and only two of them are 6-foot-9 or taller. Guarding Jackson-Davis will likely prove to be an issue for Illinois.
Shooting
Sunday will not be a shootout. Illinois owns the No. 313 three-point shooting rate in the country and hits just 30 percent of its shots from behind the arc. Illinois wins games by attacking the rim on offense and disrupting passing lanes on defense.
Getting the ball inside, while Illinois doesn’t have the size or athleticism to contain Jackson-Davis, will be difficult. The Illini’s backcourt defense is strong. But Indiana likely won’t find itself in a scenario where it needs to shoot its way out of the game.
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