Indiana will play in its third bowl game of the last five years, a stretch that has only been achieved in the Bill Mallory Era. The Hoosiers will battle SEC-opponent Tennessee on Thursday in Jacksonville for the right to the 75th Gator Bowl title.
Setting the scene
Indiana has given itself its third opportunity in the last five years to clinch its first bowl victory since 1991. The third nine-win season in program history also rests on the result of the Gator Bowl against Tennessee on Thursday.
Because of the stakes, this is, without question, the most significant game of Tom Allen’s tenure as Indiana’s head coach to date, and what makes the bowl game more significant than purely the result of the contest is that Allen and his leadership council set out to win a bowl game in 2019, not just qualify for a bowl game. Winning the game would mean Indiana set a course for itself and found a way to achieve the ultimate goal, a process Indiana hasn’t successfully completed in decades.
“It would be a massive win for us,” Allen said to the media Monday at Fernandina Beach High School. “I’m not going to call it anything different than what it would be.”
When considering the building of a program, Allen has taken the steps needed. He brought in two of the top recruiting classes in program history – two classes featuring current key contributors in 2019 – to lay a foundation for his tenure. He’s built a staff that is getting several looks from other programs, including offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, who will leave to be the head coach of Fresno State and is voluntarily leading Indiana’s offense Thursday. And Allen has put his team in position to beat teams it’s supposed to beat – Northwestern, Nebraska, Purdue and others – as well as remaining competitive with the top Big Ten East programs, falling just short of Michigan State and Penn State on the road.
All of the steps have been taken up until this game, the first Florida bowl in program history – on the backs of a couple dozen Florida natives – against an SEC opponent. The Hoosiers are in position to make history; they just need to take that next step in Jacksonville.
Positional matchups to watch
Line of scrimmage
The line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball, is what Tom Allen has been emphasizing throughout the last month of bowl preparations. He’s compared Tennessee’s size, strength and speed to Penn State’s.
The beneficiaries of that size up front for Tennessee’s defense have been the linebackers. Daniel Bituli (Second Team All-SEC), Henry To’o To’o (SEC All-Freshman selection) and Darrell Taylor are the heart of what Tennessee does on defense. Bituli blows up plays in the running game, Taylor gets into the backfield and To’o To’o fills in the gaps yet leads the team in tackles. It will be difficult for Indiana to do much of anything with those three linebackers involved.
Tennessee also has a cheat code at left guard, in First Team All-SEC selection Trey Smith. In the gaps on either side of his shoulders, the Volunteers have rushed for 4.9 yards per carry, and no two other gaps combined for more first downs (28) or rushes of 10 or more yards (11).
In terms of facing the defensive front, Indiana has found itself in a precarious situation, as freshman left tackle Matt Bedford will likely play after suffering an injury against Michigan that kept him out of the Purdue game Nov. 30, but redshirt senior right guard Simon Stepaniak suffered an injury during bowl practices that has his availability in doubt.
In any matchup between the Big Ten and the SEC, the line of scrimmage must be won.
Indiana wide receivers vs. Tennessee defensive backs
Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt has coached secondaries at the highest level of college football and won five national championships doing so. Tennessee will play sound coverage and will try to keep Indiana from spacing the field, which hasn’t always worked out well for opponents against Kalen DeBoer’s system.
Junior wideout Whop Philyor will be leaned on heavily, but senior Nick Westbrook, who has played in two bowl games, will need to be a presence after he’s caught at least five balls in five of the last six games. Junior receiver Ty Fryfogle and sophomore tight end Peyton Hendershot will need to be disruptive as well.
X-factors for Indiana
Getting past its inexperience
Only seven Hoosiers on the 2019 roster have experience in a bowl game environment. Even Peyton Ramsey hasn’t played in a bowl game before. Senior left tackle Coy Cronk and redshirt senior wideout Donavan Hale are also not available Thursday.
While many of the efforts to maximize this department are made before the game takes place, Tom Allen and his staff have done a good job of maintaining focus, if the pregame press conference is to be read as an accurate indication. The Hoosiers have stayed at Amelia Island about an hour away from Jacksonville and kept close to Fernandina Beach High School, where they practiced.
RELATED: Notebook: Gator Bowl pregame press conference
But being on the field in the Jaguars’ TIAA Bank Field could topple all of that, especially against a volatile team like Tennessee, who played down into the Gator Bowl, whereas Indiana played up into the bowl.
Jumping to an early lead
An early lead, given the experience on the team and the absence of Tennessee’s most explosive offensive player, is crucial. Indiana has typically done a good job of maximizing its first couple possessions, even against teams like Penn State. That will be important before Jauan Jennings returns from his suspension, because Indiana has seen how dangerous an offense can get with a wealth of receiving targets.
Players to watch for Tennessee
Jauan Jennings
Tennessee wide receiver Jauan Jennings is suspended for the first half of Thursday’s game after he stepped on the face of a Vanderbilt defender in the Volunteers’ final game of the regular season. That takes some pressure off of Indiana’s secondary, as Jennings is, by far, the best offensive player on Tennessee’s roster and is closing in on 1,000 yards receiving. Jennings also opens up a lot of space for Marquez Callaway, who has a similar skillset to Michigan wideout Nico Collins. Collins tore up the Indiana secondary for 165 yards and three touchdowns because of spacing and speed.
Daniel Bituli (and other linebackers)
Second Team All-SEC linebacker Daniel Bituli doesn’t necessarily flash like true freshman linebacker Henry To’o To’o or pass-rushing staple Darrell Taylor, who has seven sacks and eight tackles for loss, but he is a brick wall up the middle for the Volunteers. Pro Football Focus grooms a statistic called a “defensive stop,” which constitutes stops made by defenders that create a failure for the offense. Bituli leads the team with 40 defensive stops. No one else has more than 26.
Bituli is second on the team in total tackles, with 63, and he has added five tackles for loss and three sacks. To’o To’o leads the team in tackles, with 64, and has added five tackles for loss, while Darrell Taylor has recorded 40 tackles but has eight tackles for loss and seven sacks and four pass deflections.
Nigel Warrior
Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt is a championship-caliber secondary coach, and Tennessee’s best defensive back is Nigel Warrior. He’s brought down four interceptions this season but also is third on the team with 58 tackles. Warrior is everywhere on the field and can play at many different levels of the defense.
Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright
Both Morris and Wright are true-freshman tackles and were former five-star recruits starting for Tennessee on Thursday. Whether that leaves Tennessee vulnerable depends on which pass rush shows up for Indiana on gameday, but an interesting storyline among 2019 tackles in this game is that Indiana true freshman left tackle Matt Bedford, a Tennessee native, was not recruited by Tennessee.
Injury Report
Simon Stepaniak – questionable
Stevie Scott – questionable
Matt Bedford – probable
Prediction
Indiana needed Kalen DeBoer for this game, with a formidable defense like Tennessee likely to cause many problems, and it got him. Jeremy Pruitt said the Hoosiers “have a good imagination” on offense, and that imagination from DeBoer has allowed Indiana to take some of the pressure off of the offensive line. If DeBoer can space the field and stretch out the Volunteers’ linebacking corps, Indiana will win the game.
Score: Indiana 27, Tennessee 24
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