Indiana returns from its bye week for a homecoming matchup against Rutgers on Saturday. The 1-4 Scarlet Knights are on a four-game losing streak this season and haven't defeated the Hoosiers since 2015.
Setting the Scene
Indiana hasn't won a homecoming game since 2010 when the team defeated Arkansas State 36-34. This year, the Hoosiers are heavy favorites as they welcome the struggling Scarlet Knights to Bloomington.
In recent years, this game has been fairly competitive, with three of the last four being decided by one score, but Indiana is favored by 27.5 points in this matchup. In 2017, the Hoosiers throttled the Scarlet Knights 41-0 at home, starting the streak of consecutive wins against the program.
Rutgers is fresh off its first game under Nunzio Campanile after former head coach Chris Ashe was fired. The team lost to Maryland 48-7 as starting running back Raheem Blackshear and starting quarterback Art Sitkowski watched from the sidelines.
The team will be without both Sitkowski and Blackshear assumedly for the remaining of the season after they elected to redshirt for 2019. With so many offensive pieces missing for Rutgers, Indiana will have the opportunity to get back to its defensive identity by creating takeaways. The Hoosiers have only generated three takeaways this season after five games.
On the offensive side of the ball, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had a full week of recovery after the playing against Michigan State and going through the bye week. However, running back Stevie Scott may see a huge workload should Indiana take an early lead. He has yet to break 100 yards rushing in a game this season, but was crucial to the team's offensive success against Michigan State.
Freshman left tackle Matthew Bedford was also able to utilize the off week to work on fundamentals along the offensive line. He'll once again fill in for the injured Coy Cronk, who has since had successful surgery after his injury earlier in the season. Cronk will continue to fill his role as a team captain but will have to do so on the sidelines where he can aid Bedford in practice and in games.
The game is set for a noon kickoff, EST and will be broadcasted live on BTN.
Positional matchup to watch
Indiana defensive line vs. Rutgers offensive line
As previously mentioned, Rutgers will be without its starting running back and quarterback. In place of Blackshear comes Isaih Pacheco. While Pacheco has been the team's leading rusher thus far, Blackshear added a talented receiving presence out of the backfield and actually led the Scarlet Knights in receiving before his decision to redshirt. Rutgers will have to distribute the touches that would normally go to Blackshear among the rest of the offense, including Pacheco. The sophomore running back will be the focal point of the Scarlet Knight offense, and the Hoosiers' defensive line will be responsible for limiting the run game.
Staples along the defensive line — Allen Stallings, Demarcus Elliott and Michael Ziemba — will contribute heavily to Indiana's ability to control the game. Should Indiana dominate the line of scrimmage as it should, the game should be a quick and easy victory for the Hoosiers.
X-factor for Indiana
Stevie Scott
Indiana head coach Tom Allen said you have to be able to stop the run, and you have to be able to run the ball in college football. While stopping the run is clearly a defensive emphasis given Rutgers talent at the running back position, offensive coordinator Kane DeBoer needs to establish a balanced offense against an inferior opponent. Scott has yet to cross the century mark on the ground, and he is only averaged 3.7 yards per carry — a drop from 5.0 yards per carry last season. If Indiana can't find a way to run the ball this week, it feels as though the run game may be a lost cause after being a strength a year ago.
Scott showed flashes against Michigan State last week, having been tripped up on multiple plays that would have gone for big plays. He settled for a hard-nosed 66 yards on 18 carries against the Spartans. Having an effective ground attack will not only allow Indiana to control the clock, but it will also set up play action opportunities for Penix Jr. to connect deep down the field with his receivers. Penix's arm was in part what won him the starting spot, but explosive plays haven't been a regular occurrence for the Hoosiers this season.
Players to watch for Rutgers
Isaih Pacheco
Pacheco is filling in for Blackshear at running back and has totaled 340 yards rushing and four touchdowns this season. All of his scores came in the first week of the season against Massachusetts.
The sophomore running back will have big shoes to fill in the passing game with the absence of Blackshear. Before sitting out, Blackshear led the team with 310 receiving yards, whereas Pacheco only has seven receptions for 43 yards this season.
Tyshon Fogg
Junior linebacker Tyshon Fogg is all over the field for Rutgers. As it stands, he is currently the team's leading tackler with 46 total on the season. He's come away with 31 assisted tackles, meaning wherever the ball is, he's going to be there too.
For Scott to build a rhythm in the run game, it'll be critical for the offensive line to get to the second level and secure blocks against Fogg. If not, he'll be able to neutralize the running game, leaving Indiana with no choice but to pass. While a strong passing attack will help light up the scoreboard, it won't help the offense's balance moving forward.
Prediction
Indiana is favored to win by nearly four touchdowns against Rutgers. The team is coming off of a bye week that allowed them to relax and get healthy before starting this week's preparation. Also, I'm sure the loss to Michigan State still lingers for some of the players and a victory will help rid them of the defeat.
On homecoming, I think the Bloomington fans will see an Indiana win, and it won't be particularly close. Rutgers is missing a number of key pieces and just haven't been successful this season. The Hoosiers should have no problem scoring and should have no problem stopping the Scarlet Knights' offense.
Score: 41-10
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