TheHoosier.com is going behind enemy lines to get an opposing beat writer's take on the upcoming matchup between Indiana and Northwestern.
For this week, Louie Vaccher of WildcatReport.com helps preview the Saturday afternoon contest between the Hoosiers and the Wildcats.
Q: Northwestern is averaging 17.2 points per game, that ranks second worst in the Big Ten. What are some of the factors currently holding this Wildcat offense back?
A: Yes, the Wildcat offense is struggling mightily. They are coming off of a 112-yard performance against Washington, where they managed just a field goal, and they haven’t scored more than 13 points against an FBS opponent in regulation time. There are a lot of reasons, but it probably starts with quarterback play. Jack Lausch has made just two starts in his career after serving as the team’s wildcat QB the last two years. He’s been hesitant and inconsistent, for the most part, as you’d expect from an inexperienced player. The offensive line has been good in pass protection – they’ve allowed just three sacks this season – but they haven’t been able to get much of a push up front. Their short-yardage offense has been abysmal; they ran eight plays on consecutive series inside the Washington 4-yard line and weren’t able to cross the goal line. The Wildcats are 17th in the Big Ten in rushing, 17th in passing and 18th in third-down conversions. Other than that, things are fine.
Q: Northwestern has used two different quarterbacks to start the year. Should Indiana expect to see both of them on Saturday, or has Jack Lausch firmly overtaken Mike Wright for the starting job? If so, what is it that Lausch brings to the table that's earned him the starting spot?
A: Lausch is the starter, period. Head coach David Braun pulled the plug on Wright after two games, as ball security was an issue. Lausch really showed what his upside could be in the second half of his first start, against Eastern Illinois, when he went 11-for-11 for 163 yards and two touchdowns passing. He added 62 total rushing yards in the game, too. But his second start, against a Big Ten opponent on the road, was a much different story, as he went just 8-for-27 for 53 yards and two interceptions. His receivers dropped some balls and he had no running game to lean on, but he often held the ball too long and was inaccurate on his throws. Still, Braun said this week that they will ride with Lausch. It makes sense. He is a redshirt sophomore who could yet develop into a bona fide Big Ten quarterback. If it pans out, he could be NU’s starter for the next two years, so they at least have to see what they have with him. Wright is what he is at this point after four years in the SEC at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. We’ll probably only see him if the game gets out of hand or Lausch has an injury.
Q: What is the status of Cam Porter, should the Hoosiers expect him to play on Saturday? If he's unable to suit up, how big of a hit would that be for the Wildcat offense?
A: That’s a good question. Porter didn’t play against Washington, which was a surprise to just about everyone. Braun said this week that Porter’s recovery is “"definitely trending in the right direction”, but he stopped short of saying he would play. The Wildcats definitely need their best runner and captain on Saturday. While Joseph Himon II and Caleb Komolafe are both capable backs, Porter is the Wildcats’ hammer. He’s a power runner who hits the hole hard and runs behind his pads, and when a hole isn’t there, he can make one or move the pile. With the Wildcats’ offensive line – which will be without starting center Jack Bailey – he’s their best bet. Personally, I think the running game needs to be Northwestern’s offensive identity. They need to eat the clock, muck the game up and lean on their defense to win the game for them.
Q: Northwestern's defense is allowing just 15.8 points per game, which ranks in the top half of the Big Ten. What's been the key for the Wildcats defensive success to start the season?
A: Northwestern’s defense has been very impressive so far this season, especially when you consider that the offense has done them absolutely no favors. It all starts with the run defense. The Wildcats are allowing just 79.3 yards per game on the
ground, which ranks 10th-best in FBS, and opponents have scored just one rushing touchdown against them. They are fundamentally sound, they tackle well and they’ve made some big plays. Edge Anto Saka is a difference maker who leads the team with 2.5 sacks despite missing one game and not being 100% against Washington. Linebacker Xander Mueller is the defense’s best player; he leads the team in tackles, TFL and PBU. Finally, in the back half, safety Devin Turner has been all over the field making hits, ranking second on the team with 23 stops.
Q: How big of a factor will the environment (fans, atmosphere, wind, etc.) be on Saturday?
A: This seems to be a favorite talking point for the media this season, but I don’t think it will be an issue at all. It hasn’t been yet, anway. It’s expected to be sunny with temperatures in the 70s at kickoff. There’s a chance for some wind, but I don’t think it will affect the game much, if at all. (Wind is usually a factor coming off of Lake Michigan late in the season, when it’s cold, but the Wildcats will play both of their November games this season at Wrigley.) The atmosphere is definitely more charged than a typical game at Ryan Field would be, but the stadium seats just 12,000+, so even though they will be mostly purple (for a change), it won’t be nearly as loud as any other venue in the league. It may be the most unique environment in college football. I expect the Hoosiers and their fans will enjoy it.
Q: What do you think are three keys to the game for Northwestern, and what is your final score prediction?
As I said above, I think Northwestern needs to pound the ball and control the clock. They need to limit Indiana’s possessions and take some pressure off of Lausch. Putting the game on his shoulders is a recipe for disaster. Second, the Cats have to be much better on third down, where they are converting just 27.6%, worst in the Big Ten. I’m hopeful that they will throw some new wrinkles at the Hoosiers coming off the bye week. Defensively, I think Northwestern will limit Indiana’s running game, so the last key will be putting pressure on Kurtis Rourke. He threw his first two interceptions of the season last week against Maryland; maybe he can throw a couple up for grabs on Saturday. All that said, I just don’t think Northwestern’s sputtering offense can score enough points to pull out the win.
Prediction: Indiana 24, Northwestern 13.
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