Grey Frey doesn’t like advanced statistics. Not even a little bit.
He prefers a different strategy.
“I watch film,” IU’s offensive line coach said.
Fair. But the film Frey sees and the advanced metrics put together measuring offensive line success by Football Outsiders both lead to the same conclusion—Indiana’s offensive line isn’t getting the job done.
“I don’t really go by outside sources on that stuff,” Frey said. “We watch (film). And I think there’s too many plays that aren’t popping that aren’t coming through for whatever reason.”
The data won’t fix the problems Indiana is having, but it at least sheds some light on where the major issue areas are.
- Adjusted line yards, 112.9 – No. 25 nationally
- Standard down line yards per carry, 2.80—No. 93 nationally
- Passing downs line yards per carry, 3.23—No. 62 nationally
- Opportunity rate, 35.2 percent—No. 107 nationally
- Power success rate, 63.6 percent—No. 86 nationally
- Stuff rate, 21.7 percent—No. 104 nationally
- Adjusted sack rate, 159—No. 22 nationally
- Standard downs sack rate, 2.7 percent—No. 21 nationally
- Passing downs sack rate, 5.4 percent—No. 32 nationally
The key areas worth highlighting are the stats as it relates to the run game, which is all but the final three categories. It’s been no secret the Hoosiers’ rushing attack has performed below standard—currently ranked No. 11 in the Big Ten at 139.3 yards per game—and the line deserves some of the blame.
The opportunity rate is the most concerning of those numbers. It measures the percentage of carries (when five yards are available) that gain at least five yards. It is, more or less, a statistic that shows whether or not the offensive line did its job, Football Outsiders says.
Take that stat for what it’s worth and it becomes clear Indiana isn’t getting that job done.
The other area of concern is stuff rate, where IU ranks No. 104. It measures the percentage of carries the running back was stopped at or before the line of scrimmage. If a running back has nowhere to go, he’s going to get stuffed.
The Hoosiers have seen that too often.
“We’re making some mistakes,” Frey said. “We’re not far off on some things, either. You watch film and you’re like, ‘Oh, wow.’ An inch here, an inch there. You’re in a little bit of a groove, and you’ve got to find a way to get another two or three inches.”
The return of All-American right guard Dan Feeney could certainly help. Frey doesn’t like signaling out individual players, but even he admitted Feeney’s return brought a new energy to his line last weekend against Northwestern.
On the flip side, Indiana's pass blocking has performed well above average. The Hoosiers have given Richard Lagow plenty of time to throw the ball. But he hasn't been particularly productive in the red zone, which is where conventional wisdom says IU suffers from its lack of a run game.
At this point, Frey doesn’t care who’s out there fixing those problems as long as they perform. There’s going to be failures, he said, pointing out that Jason Spriggs graded out at just 65 percent in his All-American season a year ago, but it’s a matter of limiting those mistakes.
As the Hoosiers do, their advanced statistical numbers will turn in their favor regardless of if Frey is watching or not.
“Football has always been a perseverance sport,” he said. “That’s what it is. It’s 80 plays, 90 plays of will, especially in our world…In our world, it’s about pushing through.”
