MADISON, Wisc. – Indiana basketball, three days removed from one of the worst losses suffered on its own home floor in a storied rivalry with Purdue, looks to flush away the memory of a stinging loss by attempting to remove one of the biggest thorns in the program's side over the last 25 years.
Indiana (12-6, 4-3) hits the road Friday evening for a clash with the Big Ten-leading Wisconsin Badgers (13-4, 5-1) inside the Kohl Center, a building in which Indiana hasn't emerged victorious in since 1998. In the most recent AP Poll, Wisconsin checked in as the nation's No. 11 team.
The Hoosiers, as previously touched on, were run off their own floor at the hands of arch rival No. 2 Purdue 87-66. Indiana had no answers on a night when some of the recurring issues that have been present with the team all season came back to bite as hard as they have all season. With that game beginning the campaign's most brutal stretch of the season, IU has no time to rest and lick its wounds before facing another tall task in visiting the Badgers.
When the week's outlook first came up, Wisconsin figured to enter this game with an unblemished record in conference play. However, a loss at Penn State Tuesday night – one of two teams in the entire league to not have double-digit overall wins to its name this season – changed that, and the lead the Badgers cling to at the peak of the Big Ten's mountain is now just a half game.
If anything, it further proves the difficulty to win on the road in this conference, adding another instance to the long and growing list of teams to be caught unassuming away from the friendly confines.
Now, IU must try to overcome those same issues all of its closest foes are dealing with in a place where success hasn't come while any of the currently-rostered players were alive.
Before the Hoosiers and 11th-ranked Badgers do battle in Madison this evening, let's delve into the contest and take a look at the challenges Indiana is likely to face in the matchup.
Opponent Preview
Head Coach: Greg Gard
Career Record: 177-97
Ninth year as a head coach, all with Wisconsin
Spending 14 years on the Badgers bench in an Associate Head Coach role, Gard is in his ninth season manning the Wisconsin sidelines on his own.
Under his guidance, the Badgers have been to the NCAA Tournament five times in eight seasons, and was likely on track to make a sixth appearance in the otherwise-canceled 2020 invite as well. He was a finalist for the Naismith National Coach of the Year in 2022, and is a two-time Coach of the Year award recipient in the Big Ten twice – '22 and the aforementioned shortened 2020 season.
By KenPom, the 2023-24 Wisconsin campaign he's leading has been his best thus far in Madison.
This Season
KenPom: 12th (IU 94th)
Torvik: 17th (90th)
EvanMiya: 20th (89th)
NET Ranking: 14th (100th)
It starts on the offensive end with Wisconsin this season, where despite playing at a snail's pace compared to the rest of the sport this season with some of the slowest possessions in America, the Badgers have college basketball's sixth-best adjusted offensive effiicency this season.
Effective shooters all over the floor who don't turn the ball over and make the most of their long possessions, Wisconsin turns it's low quantity of possessions – which they largely cap themselves due to turns with the ball lasting an average 19.4 seconds – into quality baskets more often than not.
Defensively, the No. 38 group in the country has an adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5) more than eight points better than Division I average (105.7). Opponents often only get one look per possession, too – limiting opponent's offensive rebounding rate to just 22.1% – meaning teams have to convert on a higher percentage of looks from the field to keep in a contest. Wisconsin is more than happy to take the air out of the ball and force its opposition to play at their pace, not vice versa. It's then when the Badgers are most comfortable and, in turn, most dangerous.
Gard's group is a battle-tested one, enduring the sixth-toughest gauntlet of any team in the country this season. Wisconsin's loss to Penn State was the first loss to a team outside of the top 50 in KenPom this season, so they'll certainly look to be getting back to winning ways and keep a firm grasp on sole possession of the Big Ten's pole position.
- Sophomore guard AJ Storr, a former St. John's transfer and Big East All-Freshman selection, is the leading man for the Badgers this season. He leads Wisconsin in per-game scoring with 15.3 points and is the go-to guy for the team offensively – using 28.4% of possessions and taking a staggering 33.5% of the shots in the UW offense.
– Junior 7-footer Steven Crowl is the middle anchor for the Badgers, averaging 12.0 points and 7.8 rebounds a night on average. He owns the best individual offensive rating for the Badgers this season (126.5), leads the team in field goal, effective field goal and true shooting percentages and is the best rebounder for the Wisconsin this season. He's a viable threat from outside as well, having made 12-of-22 attempts from outside on the year.
- 6-foot-9 senior Tyler Wahl is the final of three double-digit per contest scorers for Wisconsin this season, good for 11.7 points and 5.8 rebounds a night. The fifth-year contributor is in the midst of his best season and has been even better in conference – his 114.4 offensive rating rises to 121.7, and his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentages also see nice bumps as well. Per EvanMiya, he's the Badgers' best individual defender as well.
- Junior guard Max Klesmit is the best outside threat of the regular shooters from distance for Wisconsin, shooting 39.1% from three this year and 9-of-13 over his last three outings. His 9.0 points per night are a bit misleading, as he's capable of booming for an outburst of points or going quiet on a given evening. Depending on the volume of shots going up and in, his impact then varies.
- Junior guard Chucky Hepburn rounds out the starting five for the Badgers, which has remained unchanged throughout all 17 games this season for Gard's group. He's a seasoned veteran who Wisconsin trusts, playing the most minutes per night on average. There's more efficient scoring options up and down the Wisconsin roster, but Hepburn's team-high in total assists means he's more than happy to facilitate and move the ball to one of the more viable scoring threats.
Other notables...
- Wisconsin's usage of bench minutes is low, just 27.0% of the total minutes come from the second unit. Outside of the starting five, only one other player – freshman guard John Blackwell – plays more than 10 minutes a night.
- In the same vein, Wisconsin's minutes continuity ranks 8th-highest in college basketball this season. With Division I average at 39.3%, Wisconsin runs continous moments with the same unit 71.9% of the time.
- Gard is a big proponent of auto-benching with two fouls. A 3.4% two-foul participation percentage is 349th in the country, just under 19% less than the average across the sport this year. The theme persists all the way back to the 2020-21 season, where two-foul participation has been 10.1% or lower each of the past four years.
Storylines to monitor...
Is Indiana's change at starting point guard permanent?
After Xavier Johnson was ejected for a Flagrant 2 foul in Indiana's road loss to Rutgers a week and a half ago, Mike Woodson decided to opt for freshman Gabe Cupps to start the following contest against Minnesota as an act of discipline. The matter was "in-house" as he described it, but Indiana earned one of its most complete victories of the season that evening in Bloomington, trouncing over the visiting Gophers.
The lineup remained unchanged despite Johnson's participation in the Minnesota game, as Cupps started versus No. 2 Purdue this past Tuesday. But this time, it was the opponents who did the trouncing over Indiana. Yet, even in a 21-point loss, Cupps was a +4 in +/-, the only net positive of any Hoosier on the evening. For contrast, Johnson was a -20 and didn't score on five attempts from the field. The minutes were split 22 to 19 in favor of Cupps.
Now, Woodson has a decision to make going forward. Will he continue to flip-flop his guards and hope to catch a hot hand? Will he continue to entrust a young freshman guard to step into the elevated role full-time and hope a turnaround in team results and season outlook comes with it? Or will Woodson award the position back to his sixth-year guard who he labeled one of two leading captains this year?
When Johnson is on, it's understandable why Woodson put such trust in him this year. But are his rollercoaster-like highs worth the lows that have also tagged along?
Chances at signature wins starting to thin as season wears on...
Indiana's cupboard still lays bare of a win that sticks out as a feather in the Hoosiers' cap – an 0-for-3 swing on the non-conference heavyweights then forced Indiana's resume to find its strength in conference. And while the Big Ten has done Indiana no favors by not matching the overall strength top to bottom as it has in previous years, neither have the Hoosiers themselves in taking advantage of the conference slate.
Now, largely out of the bubble conversation with a month and a half to go before the regular season's finish line, Indiana has left itself no choice but to start making the most of the big swings left on its schedule.
Wisconsin is one of those bites at the apple that still remains. Depending on how the game plays out, the rest of the season's picture could become much more clear.
Quick Hitters
Who?: Indiana (12-6, 4-3 in Big Ten play) at No. 11 Wisconsin (13-4, 5-1 in Big Ten play)
Series History: Indiana leads, 97-80. (Last Meeting: IU 63, WISC 48 on 1/14/23 in Bloomington)
When?: Friday, January 19, 8:30 p.m. ET
Where?: Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin
TV: FS1: Brandon Gaudin (play-by-play), Robbie Hummel (color)
Radio: IU Radio Network, Don Fischer (play-by-play), Errek Suhr (analyst), John Herrick
Vegas: Wisconsin -10.5, o/u 143.5
KenPom: Wisconsin 79-6, 89% chance of a Wisconsin victory
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