Staff Predictions: Indiana Basketball Vs. Jacksonville

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Saturday’s game against Jacksonville should be over fairly early on. Offensively, Jacksonville is inefficient and turns the ball over more than most teams. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is 96.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks at number 297 in the country according to KenPom. They are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, coming in at 25.8 percent. There are only ten teams in all of Division 1 basketball who shoot worse from beyond the arc. That inefficiency from deep has led to their number 270 effective field goal percentage, with 47.3 percent. To compound matters, they turn the ball over 20 times per game. Jacksonville is going to struggle to score on Saturday in a big way. Especially when you consider that their best offensive player, according to Garry Smits of The Florida Times Union, comes off the bench.

Defensively, Jacksonville is bad, but not as bad. Their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 106.5 according to KenPom, which ranks at number 250 in the country. They allow opponents to crash the offensive glass, giving up offensive rebounds on 33 percent of their opponent’s opportunities to get them. They do, however, block a lot of shots. The Dolphins block 14.9 percent of their opponent’s shots, good for number 19 in Division 1.

The Jaguars just don’t have the firepower to hang with Indiana, and this game should allow Indiana to get some minutes for guys who don’t usually play much, like Jake Forrester, Damezi Anderson, and Clifton Moore.

Prediction: Indiana 85, Jacksonville 41

Jacksonville put up a decent fight against Notre Dame last night, but also surrendered 57 first-half points to the Fighting Irish in a 100-74 loss. Notre Dame also shot a blistering 37 of 62 from the field (60 percent) and 18 of 32 from 3-point range (56 percent).

Those numbers should bode well for Indiana, which has the nation's seventh-highest effective field goal percentage (57.8) and fifth-best 2-point percentage (59.0). While IU has struggled from 3-point range, it could end up having a confidence-boosting performance in that category given Notre Dame's performance.

The big question in this game is if Devonte Green can string together back-to-back performances similar to the one he had Wednesday night vs. Central Arkansas. It will likely be Green running the point since Indiana is prepared to be without Rob Phinisee (who is in concussion protocol) for an extended period of time, and while he doesn't need to hit six 3-pointers on a regular basis, coming up with points as a consistent third scoring option is something Indiana will need often once Big Ten play resumes.

Even if Indiana does start this game slow like it has in recent weeks, the combination of playing at home and Jacksonville's defensive struggles give it a strong chance to move to 11-2 before the season resumes Jan. 3 against Illinois.

Prediction: Indiana 90, Jacksonville 65

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