After making a return to the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons under Mike Woodson, the Indiana Hoosiers find themselves on the outside looking in with this year's team. With just two games remaining until the calendar flips to February, the Hoosiers have a lot of work to do if they want the chance to dance again this March.
So, what will the Hoosiers need to do the rest of the way to have that chance? I recently spoke with Lukas Harkins, a bracketologist with Heat Check CBB and The College Basketball Almanac to get this thoughts. It's not a pretty outlook for Indiana, but the opportunity is still there. Here's what Harkins had to say:
"Indiana sits at 12-7, and there are lots of teams on both sides of the projected NCAA Tournament cut line with similar records: Michigan State (12-7), Villanova (11-7) and Texas A&M (11-7) are in the majority of bracketology updates, while teams like Xavier (10-8), Providence (13-6), and Virginia Tech (11-7) are not far out. However, those teams have significant legs up on Indiana in every major criteria for selection.
For starters, Indiana lacks quality wins. The Hoosiers have had six chances at Quadrant 1 victories (Home vs. Top 30, Neutral vs. Top 50, Away vs. Top 75) but have fallen short in each attempt. Most notably, the four-point loss to Kansas in mid-December stings. In addition to quadrant records, the Hoosiers are yet to pick up a win over the projected at-large field. This isn’t to say the Hoosiers are not without remaining chances, though. Given the NET rankings as of Jan. 22, Indiana’s remaining schedule features five more Q1 opportunities: at Purdue, at Illinois, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State, at Ohio State. The Hoosiers will need to win several of those games, all of which they will enter as underdogs. They would also need to avoid any major slip-ups to opponents like Penn State and Minnesota.
All team-specific bubble scenarios must be taken with a grain of salt as how bubble teams perform is a massive part of the equation, but Indiana has a lot of work to do. Without any Q1 wins and sub-95 rankings in the NET, BPI, and KenPom, it will be an uphill battle — and that might be putting it kindly. With how much work that needs to be done, and how much help Indiana might need from other bubble teams losing, I don’t think it’s reasonable to put a “target wins” on what it will take to dance this early in the season. Bart Torvik gives Indiana a 0% chance at an at-large bid."
From there, I asked Harkins about a few hypothetical situations.
"Would you say Indiana needs to win three of the five Quad-1 games and also can't lose to either Penn State or Minnesota (three remaining games)?"
Harkins- "I would guess they would need two Quad-1 wins and can’t lose to anyone else besides those Q1 games. But they definitely can’t lose to the bottom."
In those scenarios, that's saying Indiana would have to go 9-3 the rest of the way, or 8-4 if three of those eight wins were of the Quad-1 variety.
Again, not a great outlook.
Winning at Illinois on Saturday would go a long way in at least making things interesting. Find a way to win that game, (as difficult as it may be), and you could start to see a scenario where Indiana has a little life. Finishing the year 7-4 in conference play after winning a tough game in Champaign may be improbable, but not impossible.
In that scenario, Indiana would have to win their final five games in Bloomington, win at Penn State, and then win one other road game (Ohio St., Maryland, Minnesota.)
Here's a look at the full remaining schedule:
If Indiana loses in Champaign on Saturday like they'll be projected to do, things get a lot tougher. They would probably have to win out at home, and then win three games on the road. The Hoosiers would at least like to play well enough to give themselves a chance should they make a deep run in the conference tournament. As Harkins said, a lot can depend on other bubble teams and other scenarios. This is simply the "less than ideal" outlook for this team here in late January.
"I’m not really sure there’s a realistic path, to be honest, "Harkins said. "It would take a near-180 from the results we’ve seen to this point.The opportunities are there but a lot needs to happen. And we haven’t seen reason to believe it will."
Make sure to check out Harkins' work on Twitter, @hardwiredsports and HeatCheckCbb.com and follow along as we head towards March.
The Hoosiers are hoping the week-off will give them a chance to reset, heal injuries, and focus on the tall task ahead. As Mike Woodson likes to say, "Only time will tell."
–––––
Like this content? Join the conversation on TheHoosier.com's premium message boards and subscribe today!
– Follow TheHoosier on Twitter and Facebook!
– Subscribe to TheHoosier on YouTube for more content
– TheHoosier's Premium Football Board and Premium Hoops Board
