Game Preview: Indiana vs. Iowa – notes, storylines, TV
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – On the heels of a stinging loss three nights ago where everything went right except the shotmaking, Indiana basketball returns home and back to action Tuesday night, hosting the visiting Iowa Hawkeyes.
The loss for Indiana was the third straight, meaning Mike Woodson's Hoosier squad has only emerged victorious from two of the seven contests since the calendar turned to 2024 and the Big Ten schedule picked back up.
Iowa comes in fresh off a victory three days prior at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, and the two teams enter on equal footing in both overall and conference records – 12 wins to eight losses in total, four wins to five losses in Big Ten play.
It's the final tilt in February and a game that feels like a tipping point for the rest of the season, a barometer for just how deep either side can go towards respective ends of the conference's spectrum. Sneakily, defending home court ahead of a somewhat manageable stretch of next contests – at least games where there won't be an overwhelming favorite prior – makes this one of the most important games of IU's 2023-24 campaign. Especially considering the run Iowa has had on Indiana as of late, including a 22-point drubbing last season at home.
Before the Hoosiers and Hawkeyes tip it up in Bloomington on Tuesday night, dive into the numbers, key contributors and matchups that could define the result later this evening.
Opponent Profile
Head Coach: Fran McCaffery
Career Record: 524-361, 273-184 at Iowa
28th season as a head coach, 14th with the Hawkeyes
With three prior stops to Iowa as a head coach, where he's manned the Hawkeye sidelines since 2010 and is currently under contract to do so until 2028, McCaffery has become one of the league's most polarizing head coach.
Famous, or infamous, for his sideline antics and outbursts, he draws the ire of fans aplenty throughout the conference who deal with him on a consistent basis.
Yet, the former Wake Forest and Penn guard had lead Iowa to four consecutive NCAA Tournaments, save the 2020 season where the tournament was of course cancelled. He's the first coach ever to lead three different programs to the NCAA Tournament from a one-bid league, and he's one of just five head coaches to lead teams to conference tournament titles in four or more leagues. In the NCAA Tournament though, McCaffery-led teams are 6-11.
Since taking the Indiana job, Mike Woodson-led Hoosier teams have yet to defeat Iowa – 0-4 up to this point.
This Season
KenPom: 44 (IU 92)
Torvik: 54 (85)
EvanMiya: 42 (86)
NET Ranking: 58 (97)
These Hawkeyes love to play with pace, and it's something that Mike Woodson noted Monday night on his radio show as a key emphasis to limit for Iowa. The average possession for the Hawkeyes lasts just 15.2 seconds, and the nation's 20th-ranked offensive efficiency mark suggests that it's bringing results as far as converting opportunities into points.
Iowa scores 85.3 points a game and surrenders 77.4, and rarely do their turns with the ball not end with some sort of shot attempt. The Hawkeyes only turn the ball over 13.7% of the time and tote an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%, 3% better than average across Division I this season.
The Hawkeye defense is middling, only 111th in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom. When they aren't scoring, the defense has struggled this season to limit opponents from capitalizing. In six of Iowa's eight losses, it has been held to under 80 points.
Projected Starting 5: G Tony Perkins, G Josh Dix, F Payton Sandfort, F Ben Krikke, F Owen Freeman
Per EvanMiya, that combination has an adjusted team offensive efficiency of 130.0 and defensive efficiency of 89.6, a margin of +40.4. That combination has played 163 possessions together total, and is the second-best five-man lineup the Hawkeyes have that's played at least 50 possessions. Sub out Dix for Patrick McCaffery, and that margin rises to +43.9.
- Perkins, an Indianapolis-based 6-4 senior from Lawrence North, is someone Woodson labeled as "the head of the snake" for the Hawkeyes. Last season, he torched the Hoosiers in this building to the tune of 23 points and 10 rebounds in a not-so-happy homecoming for those adorning cream and crimson. On the floor, he utilizes 24.6% of the possessions and 23.8% of the shots in the Hawkeye offense, scoring 15.2 points a game this season on 46.7% shooting.
- Dix, a 6-5 sophomore guard, is elevated into a starting role after appearing in 31 games off the bench last season. Dix has breakout potential, showing it in back-to-back games earlier this month against Nebraska and Minnesota, where he scored consecutive career highs of 16 and 21 points. But on a given night, he's good for 6.8 points, 2.3 rebounds and just under a couple assists an outing. His 130.6 offensive rating is a team-high.
- Sandfort, a 6-7 junior wing, is a liable scoring threat from multiple levels on the floor. Averaging just shy of three makes a game from distance, his 39.3% (55-140) three-point percentage means he's someone IU can't lose track of Tuesday night. Scoring 14.5 points and grabbing 6.9 rebounds a night for McCaffery's Hawkeyes, Sandfort gets up the highest volume of shots on this year's Iowa team – taking 24.1% of the shots when on the floor.
- Krikke, a 6-9 graduate transfer from Valparaiso, helps lead the Hawkeyes after carrying the torch for scoring in the Missouri Valley Conference last season. Surrounded by better talent and in a more favorable situation, his 19 points a game have dipped slightly to 15.7, albeit no slouch on its own. He's shooting 56% from the field this year.
- Freeman, the 6-10 freshman forward, has established himself as a favorable, leading candidate for Big Ten Freshman of the Year come the season's conclusion. A now seven-time winner of the Freshman of the Week award in the conference, many of Freeman's counting stats have actually taken jumps since entering into Big Ten play, including offensive rating (131.7), effective FG% (67.2) and true shooting percentage (69.1). His conference offensive rating is fourth-best, and his shooting marks each check in at second-best in the league.
Names to know off the bench...
- Patrick McCaffery, 6-9 redshirt senior forward: Started 15 games and appeared in 17 this season for the Hawkeyes, but missed time with an ankle injury earlier this month. Averages 9.2 points, 3.2 rebounds a game. Son of Iowa's head coach Fran.
- Brock Harding, 6-0 freshman guard: Has appeared in all 20 games for the Hawkeyes off the bench this season, but is still trying to find his footing offensively. Averages 3.4 points a game on 31.6% shooting.
- Dasonte Bowen, 6-2 sophomore guard: Has played in all 20 games this season and made eight starts to begin the season. Averages 5.4 points and 2.4 assists a game while shooting 40% from the field.
Storylines to monitor...
Can Indiana find its jumpshot?
Indiana got all the fixings for an upset on the road on Saturday, yet couldn't make the shots to earn the win the effort warranted. Instead, empty with nothing but a nonexistent moral victory based on the response of a dud Wisconsin contest the previous time out, Indiana's 12-22 free throw shooting and 0-9 three-point shooting was the tangible difference, both in watching the game and peering at the box score, to why IU had lost a third straight contest.
The shooting woes from beyond the arc and at the charity stripe have Woodson and his crew feeling lost as of late. He knows they're getting the looks they need, but they can't punish defenses for giving it to them.
Indiana is 24th in getting to the line and 326th in free throw percentage. They take the 10th fewest threes of any team in the country, and make just 33.1% of them – good for exactly 200th in America this year.
The focus, or the execution of how such droughts have come about, are a constant thorn in the side of Indiana they can't seem to extract. How much better off would the Hoosiers be with a semi-consistent jumper in its toolbox? We know they would have at least a couple more victories, and some more comfort to its playstyle and resume.
But it doesn't, and how Indiana goes about finding it must change.
Will Kel'el Ware play?
Most commonly referred to as "the big fella" by his head coach, he said Monday night that they'd know more about his status Tuesday morning once they got him in the facility. Indiana's been without it's 14.2 point, 9.4 rebound per game man in the middle for the previous two contests now, and to get him back for the game versus Iowa, the sophomore big man's ankle will need to be in better shape than it is now.
Indiana went small on Saturday to counter it and the Illini approach, although Woodson himself said those changes are often ones he's reluctant to make and differ from his usual approach. But to deny productivity from the smaller unit that allowed constant 1-through-5 switching and an emphasis on getting athleticism on the floor – which will be needed to limit the transition heavy attack the Hawkeyes come firing with – would be denying truth at this point in the season.
It may not matter, as Ware may play and put it all to rest, likely earning a reinsertion into the lineup spot that Payton Sparks and Anthony Walker have instead occupied the last times out. But what Indiana got on Saturday, if anything, was an option to consider.
Quick Hitters
Who?: Indiana (12-8, 4-5 in Big Ten play) vs. Iowa (12-8, 4-5 in Big Ten play)
Series History: Indiana leads, 106-82. (Last Meeting: IOWA 90, IU 68 on 2/28/23 in Minneapolis)
When?: Tuesday, January 30, 7:00 p.m. ET
Where?: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, Indiana
TV: BTN: Kevin Kugler (play-by-play), Brian Butch (color)
Radio: IU Radio Network, Don Fischer (play-by-play), Errek Suhr (analyst), John Herrick
Vegas: Indiana -1.5, o/u 159.5
KenPom: Iowa 82-80, 56% chance of a Hawkeye victory
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