Bill Connelly: Indiana Football No. 39 Nationally
Indiana football may be on the cusp of a strong season.
At least, that's what Bill Connelly figures.
Connelly, a football advanced stats guru renowned for his preseason projections, released his preseason S&P+ index that has Indiana ranked No. 39 overall in the country out of 130 teams.
He projects the Hoosiers to win 6.5 games and finish fourth in the Big Ten East and No. 6 in the Big Ten as a whole.
In determining preliminary projections, Connelly looks at three factors: recruiting, returning production and recent history.
Recruiting is based on two-year recruiting rankings which bring true freshmen, redshirt freshmen and true sophomores all into play. In this, Indiana ranks No. 61, which is the middle of the three factors. This accounts for 25 percent of the projection.
Returning production, where IU ranks No. 23, is actually the Hoosiers' biggest strength. This accounts for 56 percent of the rankings as well, which gives Indiana a major boost in the ratings.
The final category, recent history, only accounts for 19 percent but is one of the easier parts of the formula to follow. Indiana ranks No. 75 here, which is the worst of all three inputs.
All of this data says that Indiana should be right on the verge of a winning season under Tom Allen's guidance. Reaching the six-win mark would put the Hoosiers in a bowl for a third consecutive season.
But how accurate is Connelly? Well, because of the nature and impact of injuries in football, it's hit and miss.
A year ago, Connelly projected Indiana at No. 59 in the nation at 5.9 wins. The Hoosiers were just about spot on here, coming in with six wins during the run to the Foster Farms Bowl.
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